understand at least one thing at enough of a level to get a pretty good view of the experts in that thing. In many areas, when you get a close enough look, you see that the experts understand a lot AND they’re filling in a lot of gaps. Some of those gaps are filled in with guesses.

Some of the guesses are highly educated guesses. Some are just plain guesses. And you see enough guesses turn out to be wrong.

So you start to wonder when you hear experts. What are they guessing on? How wide is the possible range of a given variable that they don’t know the true value of?

Today, experts know much more about COVID 19 than they did two weeks ago. Two weeks from now, they’ll know much more than they do today. And in a year, they’ll know a lot more.

Furthermore, the experts in any given situation don’t all agree with one another. And sometimes the assumptions a given expert relied on or the methodology used in coming to a conclusion is later proven to be wrong.