FPI thinks the following 4 records are about 80% of the likely records for Utah:

10-2: 16%
9-3: 26%
8-4: 25%
7-5: 16%

With 11-1 at 6% and 6-6 at 7% covering over 95%. They put Utah as favorites in 10 games, only dogs to USC and UW.

S&P is a little more favorable, putting Utah as dogs only to UW and as slightly larger favorites in most games. They suggest the following records are about 93% of the time for Utah:

11-1: 10%
10-2: 23%
9-3: 28%
8-4: 21%
7-5: 11%

A 9-3 record results in a top 15 Utah if they win their bowl game (at least, it would have last year), but probably keeps them out of the PAC 12 title game, unless USC is as bad this year as they were last year (and I don't expect that to last forever). A 10-2 or 11-1 record puts Utah square in the top 10 and almost certainly in the driver's seat for the PAC 12 title game and possible Rose Bowl, depending on the PAC 12 opponent. 11-1 with a loss in the PAC 12 title game could put Utah in the Cotton Bowl playing the G5 representative, or in the Rose Bowl if the PAC 12 champ (my money's on Oregon) gets into the playoff.