From The Atlantic

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Mar 27, 2020
1:12:01pm

Longbow Cougar All-American

From The Atlantic

The Atlantic

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts

Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/

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Longbow Cougar

Bio page: Longbow Cougar
Joined: Jan 14, 2013
Last login: May 16, 2024
Total posts: 2,613 (166 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Honest question: Why are people increasingly skeptical of expert opinions?

Gorgias

3/27/20 8:25am

Arrogance.

Ragnar Danneskjold

3/27/20 8:28am

This is interesting. And probably true.

Gorgias

3/27/20 8:33am

When I hear an "expert" say "everybody who is smart agrees with me", I immediately think "if you were right you wouldn't

Ragnar Danneskjold

3/27/20 9:07am

Maybe it’s arrogance of those need to listen not be open to receiving a message

U2wearblue

3/27/20 1:29pm

You're proving my point...

Ragnar Danneskjold

3/27/20 2:19pm

Fauci is arrogant? He's the opposite, and now everyone's ignoring him

runnincoug

3/27/20 8:43am

I was thinking in general terms.

Ragnar Danneskjold

3/27/20 9:04am

probably true sometimes, but probably more often not arrogance, just confidence

runnincoug

3/27/20 9:11am

Could be. It's hard to distinguish between the two.

Ragnar Danneskjold

3/27/20 9:13am

Didn’t find him arrogant at all! People listening to Trump couldn’t stand him

U2wearblue

3/27/20 1:31pm

This, you hit the nail on the head...

So it goes...

3/27/20 6:32pm

The downside of being better than everyone else is that people tend to assume

DapperDan

3/27/20 8:45am

Oh ... I thought you meant the skeptics were arrogant

coolcats

3/27/20 8:52am

On the flip side, it could be seen as arrogant to dismiss the conclusions of

Defenestrator

3/27/20 8:52am

Very true.

Ragnar Danneskjold

3/27/20 9:04am

BINGO! I don’t care what accountant Bob thinks I want someone trained in field!

U2wearblue

3/27/20 1:33pm

You're missing the point. If an "expert" comes out guns a-blazing and arrogant, many people are turned off by that.

Ragnar Danneskjold

3/27/20 2:27pm

Sounds like quite the character. I wonder what they would have to say about

Defenestrator

3/27/20 3:21pm

No idea. I have him on ignore.

Ragnar Danneskjold

3/27/20 3:28pm

There are a group of people who are "Biased Towards Reality"...

So it goes...

3/27/20 6:36pm

A lot of arrogant know-it-alls on CB too.

eddog

3/27/20 12:09pm

Political bias.

idcougarfan

3/27/20 8:28am

I think there is a lot of truth in this. No one rejects the expertise of the

Defenestrator

3/27/20 8:55am

I don't know about "increasingly."

ReyOso

3/27/20 8:28am

Fair point. Maybe it just seem to increase since social media gives a mic

Gorgias

3/27/20 8:30am

Side question: Have you made a survey of members who think the Earth

mbs6

3/27/20 8:38am

No, I haven't. They're less common than they used to be, thankfully.

ReyOso

3/27/20 8:42am

I appreciate that. Thank you.

mbs6

3/27/20 8:49am

I once accompanied some missionaries to teach a grad student in a stem field

Gorgias

3/27/20 8:56am

You haven't been to my ward. Very affluent and educated ward, but there are

coolblue

3/27/20 12:14pm

Politics

mwcoug

3/27/20 8:29am

There are a wide array of expert opinions, and you can pick one you like.

Plato

3/27/20 8:30am

The number of times that expert opinions have proven to be no more than a guess

JollyGreenGiant

3/27/20 8:30am

or in the words of Mac from its always sunny: science is a liar...sometimes

Gorgias

3/27/20 8:38am

Posted this before, but experts are often worse at predicting future outcomes

Odysseus

3/27/20 9:16am

Because experts are too often wrong, especially during the Great Recession

MyTwoCents

3/27/20 9:35am

So because experts in a domain that is based on being nearly impossible to

ryebrye

3/28/20 1:03am

People care more about being “right” than about what is true. IOW, pride.

chilango

3/27/20 8:32am

You can find “experts” arguing every side of any issue.

MarkWatney

3/27/20 8:32am

With coronavirus even the experts are learning as they go and are not always

Littlerich

3/27/20 8:33am

The media that hypes the “experts” is trash. Too many treat science as a

Memmo

3/27/20 8:33am

I'm a hard-science guy and too much soft-science is passed-off

mbs6

3/27/20 8:48am

Poor track record of prediction.

RugbyCoug

3/27/20 8:33am

Maybe because at first there were gonna be 500,000 deaths in Britain only to

Viking VI

3/27/20 8:34am

This post is a great example of confirmation bias

chilango

3/27/20 8:36am

Simply, experts never have complete knowledge or control of the modeling

Viking VI

3/27/20 8:45am

No expert ever claims to know everything, at least not in science. But this

chilango

3/27/20 8:53am

You say confirmation bias, maybe you're using the logical fallacy of appeal to authority.

sgriff

3/27/20 8:49am

Not authority, but data, facts, and science. Appeal to authority would be doing

chilango

3/27/20 8:56am

Maybe you aren't. I'm too lazy to go check your posting history. But there have been plenty using the argument

sgriff

3/27/20 9:22am

I mean this is all so new and every country is recording and reporting things differently, I'm not sure anyone really

sgriff

3/27/20 9:25am

I basically analyze data and do modeling for a living. Financial modeling. My

chilango

3/28/20 1:07am

Contempt blinds their ability to give credit someone/something they disagree w/

RockyBalboa

3/27/20 8:34am

Experts touted as experts that aren't really experts.

RugbyCoug

3/27/20 8:34am

soc. media has turned everyone into an expert on everything. And all megaphones

Iman23

3/27/20 8:34am

Money drives extreme expert opinions to get coverage ....

Xenon

3/27/20 8:36am

<< Deleted >>

East1999

3/27/20 8:37am

I don’t know. Personally Greta and Barbara Streisand have enough credibility

SouthernBlueBlood

3/27/20 8:37am

I'd guess one reason is that there are so many "experts" everywhere that we

BYUfan92

3/27/20 8:38am

From what I've seen, it's from expert information passing from experts to

swingcat

3/27/20 8:39am

RE: From what I've seen, it's from expert information passing from experts to

Defenestrator

3/27/20 8:44am

Because you can find an expert to say what you want him to say

JOPE

3/27/20 8:40am

Here's my opinion - even the experts disagree.

Eddie

3/27/20 8:41am

Plus when people say "the experts agree" there are still usually experts who don't. There are specialists and experts

BlueBlood94

3/27/20 12:23pm

IMO, the better educated you become the more likely it is that you are able to

gwalker

3/27/20 8:41am

This is absolutely true. But also, somewhat nihilistic

Gorgias

3/27/20 8:44am

Not so much nihilistic in my case. But a recognition that there's an element

gwalker

3/27/20 11:05am

Some of this is just about time and learning about how this virus operates...

Bonoman

3/27/20 8:48am

Mainstream fake news media.

Adwight

3/27/20 8:42am

The biggest problem with Trump's presidency is how he's forever changed how

runnincoug

3/27/20 8:45am

He isn’t wrong though. He’s exposed a real problem. It isn’t made up

Croweater

3/27/20 8:56am

^^^Case in point. Most journalists are pretty balanced.

runnincoug

3/27/20 9:03am

That’s a good one.

Misteak

3/27/20 9:16am

And as case in point...why do you disagree with me? Because of what Trump said?

runnincoug

3/27/20 9:32am

If anyone was willing enough to see, fake news didn't start with Trump

byublue42

3/27/20 11:04am

NY Times/WaPo/HuffPo/MSN/MSNBC/The New Yorker/NPR/NBC/The Economist/CBS/Atlantic/Politico/Time all have an obvious

HarlemCoug

3/27/20 11:09am

Because I have eyes. I see what they focus on and what they downplay...and most

Misteak

3/27/20 11:18am

wuuuuut. This is way bigger than just Trump

Memmo

3/27/20 10:56am

They also did that to themselves. He isn’t wrong.

Adwight

3/27/20 10:17am

Do you include Fox news in this bunch?

ryebrye

3/27/20 1:13pm

What's interesting is how they don't realize they do it. The "other side"

runnincoug

3/27/20 8:42am

My problem is with the “halo effect”...giving those who are experts in one

Misteak

3/27/20 8:44am

Because there are so many OPPOSING VIEWS within the 'expert' community.

Benfica1

3/27/20 8:44am

Because they are not omniscient.

snowcat

3/27/20 8:44am

The internet.

ironman1315

3/27/20 8:44am

Because nuance, compromise and gray areas no longer exist. The world is either black or white. If someone who believes

foofcoug

3/27/20 8:45am

Fake news is real. So much of what the experts say is filtered through the media

Croweater

3/27/20 8:47am

Especially what they DON’T cover or emphasize.

Misteak

3/27/20 9:17am

My response as a lawyer

GregOstertag

3/27/20 8:50am

Because the internet is providing them with too many other opinions and it

mudpupper

3/27/20 8:50am

Skepticism of other experts and their data is a core part of the scientific process

ColoSpgs

3/27/20 8:53am

Good point. Maybe skepticism isn’t the right word. It’s the outright denial.

Gorgias

3/27/20 8:58am

Well said. Expertly put.

Misteak

3/27/20 9:18am

You mean like FOX downplaying minimizing COVID for a few months?

So it goes...

3/27/20 6:48pm

Ideological agendas that lead to skewing of the facts. It’s rampant.

Refugee

3/27/20 8:54am

Because the “expert” opinions are almost always contradictory to other “experts.” Choose your expert wisely.

dryflyelk

3/27/20 8:57am

This +100

proudcugr

3/27/20 11:28am

Because they are experts in only part of the equation.

Doogal McCougar

3/27/20 9:27am

That’s why the president is a ‘generalist’. He has to make decisions across

Misteak

3/27/20 11:20am

<< Deleted >>

Machiavelli

3/27/20 9:40am

We crave certainty. We listen to those who pretend to have it. They don't.

HenderCoug

3/27/20 10:05am

CNN, CNBC, MSNBC, et al gravitate ONLY to the experts that want to bury a

TrueBlue67

3/27/20 10:13am

Pseudoscience is rampant. Anybody that understand real science wouldn't get any

SFarkus

3/27/20 10:20am

we're tired of being lied to... boy who cried wolf should be re-read by all....

HarlemCoug

3/27/20 10:54am

Funding . . .

Sooner Cougar

3/27/20 10:55am

Also, they don’t want all their work, their degree, etc. to be meaningless.

Misteak

3/27/20 11:23am

Concerning funding, you may find these past threads interesting:

Defenestrator

3/27/20 11:48am

Read The Fatal Conceit. Humans are prone to errors & arrogance - even experts.

Jacksonian76

3/27/20 10:55am

Experts in one field are far from experts in another. Usually their views

Malacis

3/27/20 11:07am

What answer would you like? I can provide the "research" you want for a fee.

Division Bell

3/27/20 11:17am

Well you see Professor Division Bell, most of our funding comes from the “green”

JollyGreenGiant

3/27/20 11:19am

The answer is to put in solar and wind power. Get rid of your old light bulbs

Division Bell

3/27/20 11:21am

Because we don’t like our life choices to be questioned.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/27/20 11:44am

Self-importance

Jeb

3/27/20 11:58am

Most experts these days are agenda driven. Power and money are the motivators.

coolblue

3/27/20 12:19pm

Because I heard for 20 years that oil was about gone, sea would rise, etc.

CosmoK

3/27/20 12:20pm

Over half of academia is activism now rather than scholarship/science

yakkamole

3/27/20 12:23pm

THIS. Having been in academia for a while and with most my friends in academia, I can confirm the truth of this.

BlueBlood94

3/27/20 12:30pm

Because so-called experts are increasingly wrong

zerome4sooners

3/27/20 12:34pm

Population has more access to info, easier to trust experts when you know nothin

Hill4Heisman

3/27/20 12:37pm

The left seems to be freaked out about this, while people the right don't care

Lakerone

3/27/20 12:44pm

Because as the cdc doctors said yesterday, the models and predictions made by

travelcoug

3/27/20 12:55pm

Too many agenda driven expert opinions

astroman

3/27/20 1:11pm

From The Atlantic

Longbow Cougar

3/27/20 1:12pm

Expert is a term thrown out there to silence debate.

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts

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