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Mar 31, 2020
1:29:13pm
TFL Starter
Yep. Frequent, easy, inexpensive testing and potential for proven treatments
will all change this mindset. Most models now reflect the current uncertainty. Once data can show the risk of death or illness by age and demographic and the % success rate among the treatment options, people will be advised to make their own risk assessment.

For example, if a football stadium required mandatory testing prior to admittance of a game. And if they could efficiently administer COVID tests that could show results within a 5-minute window. Would that be enough to justify returning baseball, football or basketball?

And if males 18-45 year knew they had a .25% mortality rate if they were to contract the illness, and if the ticket issuers of the stadium were to disclose the risks associated with crowded events — do you really think the billions of billions of dollars in these industries would be able to contain that demand with such little risk?

People are not going stay home for the rest of their lives unless they are at a higher risk profile.

I don't see how you keep sports off the fields for more than 3-4 months. I get how incredibly cumbersome and bottle necked the testing would get. But given the amount of money involved, the pent up demand and the low risk demographic, the market will find a way.
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