Sign up, and you'll be able to ignore users whose posts you don't want to see. Sign up
Apr 10, 2020
4:49:56am
Jingleheimer Playmaker
Yeah...I've basically thought the same thing for the last few weeks.
The diamond princess cruise data alone were wholly consistent with a few points he makes and we know more now that we've seen cases in other countries dying out.
- 2% of "symptomatic" individuals will die, but the N on that does not include large numbers of people who are: (i) exposed but not infected and (ii) infected but asymptomatic (I think that's his point here...but it's not particularly clear what he's saying in the interview).
- Kids are not dying from this and schools (as well as University residence halls in my opinion) should be open so that herd immunity builds up in those low risk groups (only the high risk groups should be quarantined and only for the high risk period that should last about a month if nature is left to run its course among non-high risk groups).
- Flattening the curve is simply expanding the timeline from 2-4 weeks (peak at end of week 2) to a longer period, which potentially increases the likelihood that this will last into the Fall (when schools finally reconvene).
- This is and will be far more widespread than any of the "confirmed cases" numbers are tracking, but we'll still only see deaths in the US in the tens of thousands, not in the hundreds of thousands.

The one place I disagree with him is on PPE in hospitals as it's not simply a matter of hoarding (like with TP), but the utilization has dramatically increased in response to the virus. One question about PPE at NYU kind of implied that healthcare workers are taking hand sanitizer and PPE home and he does little to refute that by again referencing TP. I hadn't thought about this, but it's not unreasonable to wonder whether a good number of healthcare workers have a few boxes of masks at home for their families. Office personnel take home pens...healthcare workers take home masks??? His point might have also been that people are hoarding the masks by overusing them, but I just don't agree with this point as I think PPE should be more widely utilized at a time like this. Also, I think it's a fair question as to why the Hospital emergency plans didn't include a storage of these essential supplies. If they've got tents for an emergency then they should have more than just the PPE on their shelves available.
Jingleheimer
Previous username
Nut'n'2Say
New username
(Private)
Bio page
Jingleheimer
Joined
Aug 15, 2009
Last login
Nov 1, 2023
Total posts
0 (0 FO)
Messages
Author
Time

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.