The initial projections and even the current projections are not based on good science. We have tremendous selection bias in our estimates of infections and "confirmed cases" data, our methodology for testing is changing over time, our societal behaviors are experiencing tremendous shifts based on various forced "distancing" efforts, we're making projections based on fundamentally different populations in terms of overall health, risk factors, quality of medical care, and access to medical care. The projections are based on a lot of bad science and the intuition of many of the unwashed masses has been a lot closer than many of the early models on how this would go up to this point.