TV analytics, and recent twitter reports from media people is that the PAC just went from $35M per year per school to maybe $19M per year per school.  We also know, not just speculation, that the coastal governorships put in dramatic controls and regulations in place during COVID, and anyone has to be thinking that this is a big risk given that PAC management itself is in the coastal jurisdictions.  We also believe that UW and UO are likely to leave at the first chance from several inside and outside reports, and largely due to the well reported metrics on B10 payouts.

I'm not sure what point you seem to be objecting to.  None of this is really speculation other than what Washington's and Oregon's current interests actually are - but the tea leaves here aren't exactly inaccessible.