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Jul 7, 2022
10:14:21am
krindorr Intervention Needed
Wait, where are you seeing this? The $$$ you're citing in particular doesn't seem to add up

You just claimed that we know from 'twitter media reports' that

the PAC just went from $35M per year per school to maybe $19M per year per school.

I haven't seen anything near that reported, so would love some sources

Here's what we do know (with sources on where it's been widely reported):

  1. The current PAC12 deal (beginning in 2012 and going through 2024) is worth $21M/school/yr*
  2. That's more than the current Big 12 deal (beginning in 2012 and going through 2025) which is worth $20M/school/yr (initially $17M/school/yr, but ESPN kept the payout the same after A&M and Mizzou left in an effort to keep Texas from leaving to a conference they didn't control)*
  3. Since that time, both conferences have lost important members (Texas A&M, Mizzou, Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12; USC and UCLA from the PAC12)
  4. The estimate I've most commonly seen** for the change in value in the PAC12 next contract is going from $500M/yr ($41.7M/school/yr) to only $300M ($30M/school/yr), which is a large loss (from what it could have been) to be sure, but clearly substantially more than both the PAC12 and Big 12 have been getting.  This would include Tier 1, II and III content ***
  5. The PAC12 is currently negotiating their TV deal so has hard numbers on what exactly they would get
  6. There is less certainty on what a Big 12 deal would be worth, so estimates range wildly - anywhere from $20M/school/yr**** to $26M/school per school ($22M for Tier 1/2 +$4M/school from ESPN for Tier 3)***** to approximately $45ishM/school/yr****** (though that also assumes a larger CFP with more $ going to each conference, which may not be the case if/when the B1G/SEC break away); also worth noting that other industry insiders have voiced disagreement specifically with that larger prediction*******
  7. Analysis******** indicates that the remaining 10 PAC12 teams have a combined 16.7M fans (1.67M/school).  The remaining 12 Big 12 teams have a combined 11.57M fans (964k/school)

Some of that (the Navigate data) does indicate the Big 12 would have a substantial lead, other sources do not.  But no sources that I have seen indicate that the PAC12 will be down at $19M/school/yr

* On3 (Current TV deals)
** Canzano (Former Fox exec estimates new PAC12 deal)
*** Mercury News (Previous Estimate of PAC12 deal)
**** TV Rev (estimate of Big 12 deal after OUT and expansion).
***** SicEm 365 (estimate of Big 12 deal after OUT and expansion)
****** Navigate Conference TV Deal Projections (after OUT, but prior to USC/UCLA)
******* CBS Sports (insider disagreement with Navigate)
******** AltimoreCollins (fanbase estimation)

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Jul 7, 2022 at 10:14:21am
Message modified by krindorr on Jul 7, 2022 at 10:15:07am
Message modified by krindorr on Jul 7, 2022 at 10:16:13am
Message modified by krindorr on Jul 7, 2022 at 10:17:34am
Message modified by krindorr on Jul 7, 2022 at 10:53:00am
krindorr
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krindorr
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