I think a major miss on 4th down analytics everywhere is factoring in momentum.

Dec 8, 2022
2:09:36pm

cougarbob137 All-American

It’s essentially non-quantifiable and I believe it plays a bigger role in the decision than a spreadsheet could account for.

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cougarbob137

Bio page: cougarbob137
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
Last login: May 2, 2024
Total posts: 3,384 (23 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

KS and misapplied "analytics"

Milton

12/8/22 2:01pm

Excellent post. Thanks.

ArcticKat

12/8/22 2:08pm

I think a major miss on 4th down analytics everywhere is factoring in momentum.

cougarbob137

12/8/22 2:09pm

I love the 4th down calls. Just come up with better plays. Why does it have to

Iman23

12/8/22 2:17pm

and don't repeatedly call the same QB sneak when your QB is gun shy about...

icecougar

12/8/22 2:27pm

Or use a FB or not the RBs that get tackled on first contact

braddahmike

12/8/22 3:23pm

^^^^^^this. Use a FB or lead blocker at least!

moknowssports

12/8/22 6:23pm

Analytics just don’t work in football. It’s a lot different than baseball or BB.

Senora Featherbottom

12/8/22 2:09pm

This could be very true...11 moving parts instead of a pitcher and hitter etc

Tmoney1969

12/8/22 2:12pm

I think its overrated in basketball too. Seen way to many coaches rely on it

FT487

12/8/22 2:19pm

Quin Snyder

CameronG

12/8/22 4:00pm

Like Pope?

Wyomingite

12/8/22 8:05pm

Many coaches

FT487

12/8/22 8:21pm

I would say analytics are even overrated in basketball

CameronG

12/8/22 3:58pm

"analytics" are just "stats" so you can read into them how you want

PortlandCoug

12/8/22 2:10pm

Exactly, I hate that so many decisions now are based "on the numbers"

CameronG

12/8/22 3:55pm

There is a lot of analystics that now support going for it on short distances

I'mBatman

12/8/22 2:17pm

i'll continue my argument on 4th analytics. Be aggressive, but for Heavens sake

CougID

12/8/22 2:18pm

The Recruiting Measurables and Diamond in the rough really bothers me a lot....

Coug

12/8/22 2:36pm

All analytics based on averages should be…

coug92

12/8/22 3:00pm

Here's a simple fact about why offenses end up making mistakes:

TrueBlue67

12/8/22 3:10pm

If you don't know what the stats themselves are, or what they indicate, not sure

OldFogey

12/8/22 3:30pm

Exactly. You also need to know what they don't indicate.

cdr88

12/8/22 3:50pm

Great post. They should also run stats on allowing drives of 10 or more plays

cdr88

12/8/22 3:57pm

OP said "seem to have found some data" on drop 8. As in, he has no idea. A post

OldFogey

12/8/22 4:06pm

I think the point of the OP is that the data shouldn't be the end all be all

CameronG

12/8/22 4:23pm

I get all that. Just calling out that the OP makes a ton of assumptions

OldFogey

12/8/22 7:10pm

Very well thought out

CharlottesvilleCoug

12/8/22 4:21pm

The worst part of “analytics” is misinterpretation/misapplication.

HiLife

12/8/22 5:00pm

Same. Usually the analytics were used to justify a decision already made.

Ripliancum

12/8/22 5:30pm

One that drives me crazy is kick off returns

Jacob

12/8/22 6:09pm

Thank you - great example! Explains why we kept kicking to the USF returner

Milton

12/8/22 7:08pm

On Drop 8, it actually WOULD have worked IF we had been better in 3rd and long

moknowssports

12/8/22 6:20pm

They had those percentages because Drop 8 gets no pressure on the QB

CameronG

12/9/22 9:59am

I generally agree, but Drop 8 is used by almost every CFB team

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