members leave (e.g., Washington, Stanford, or Oregon to the Big 10)? Even if that doesn't happen until the PAC 12's forthcoming contract runs out, it seems somewhat inevitable at some point. The Big 10's UCLA and USC are on an island far, far away from the rest of the Big 10. It makes a ton of sense for the Big 10 to establish a western pod. Whether they do or not remains to be seen, but it seems like a very realistic possibility. If even one of WA/OR/ST bolts to the Big 10, it's hard to imagine a case where the PAC 12 can hold together. They are only at 10 members and they don't have a single quality candidate to add that moves the needle.

Also, the ACC is increasingly looking attractive to the Big 10 or SEC. So I have a hard time imagining there won't be another big shift when the SEC and Big 10 contracts come up for renewal in the next 5 years. The PAC 12 and ACC will be highly vulnerable. The ACC is large enough that it could survive a couple defections. Not so with the PAC 12.

Ironically, because the SEC and Big 10 aren't wanting any of their members, the Big 12 is positioned to be the third most stable conference in the country. Glad BYU landed there. I would be very nervous if BYU were in the PAC 12. We dodged a bullet.

Lastly, research universities wanting to associate with other research is entirely irrelevant if your conference is down to 8 or fewer members. The Arizona schools, Colorado, etc. aren't going to refuse to join the Big 12 at that point if that is their best option (which it almost certainly would be). Also, as someone else in this thread pointed out, not being in the same athletic conference doesn't really affect that much whether universities collaborate with each other on research projects. Academics don't choose research partners based on their partners athletic conference affiliation. That's just not how academia works.