BYU will likely get more money, not less, when they re-up with ESPN (assuming we don't join a P5 before then).
There is so much more to the TV contract than BYU's W/L's. BYU/ESPN is a business relationship that benefits both parties in many ways and is only mildly influenced by whether BYU wins or loses. ESPN has already built in adjustments for BYU. Games are shown on ESPNU, ESPN2, ESPN or ABC depending on the level of national interest in BYU, the caliber of opponent and the demographics and need to fill a certain day and time slot. BYU's income rises and falls accordingly from the contract. (This is straight from a high level ESPN exec.)
So far ESPN has picked up the maximum number of games every year of the deal and we've had a significant number of those games on ESPN and ESPN2.
The sky is not falling nor will it fall on our ESPN contract.