My guess is 0. Are they better teams overall, than the bottom feeders of the pac 12? Who cares, are they better at pass protection than those bottom feeders (since this is the stat we are worried about)? Yes. Do I trust a year's worth of stats or your eyeball of the 0-1 games you watched. I'll trust the year's stats.

Look, I think Troy could have a good season. The new offensive scheme should allow him more opportunities to throw the ball. I imagine this new offensive scheme will allow him to get more reps in camp too. So Troy could be better than last year.

But you are comparing Tanner's Freshman year, just off a mission, limited fall camp reps (because he was the backup), against Troy's Junior season. You limit it to just P5 games, which would be fair if all P5 teams were equal, but some teams like Arizona and ASU are bad defensive teams (notice the only team they both played was UCLA and Tanner was 10 points higher). You also eliminate Tanner's best QBR game (Nebraska), maybe you can make an argument here, but it wasn't like Nebraska had thrown in their back ups for when he came in and played. If you watch that game Tanner was really pretty good, sure the Hail Mary has an element of luck, but he played well. Either way, after all that cherry picking you come up with a QBR of 48.75 for Tanner and then a 50.03 for Troy (you put 50.3, but I crunched the numbers and you missed the zero, likely a typo). So after all that, Troy beats him by a QBR of 1.28. If Nebraska was included Tanner jumps up to 57.82. I love that you say Tanner was terrible against P5s and Troy was a mixed bag, when it is clear by your calculation/cherry picking they are about the same against P5s.

So who will have the better season this year? Instead of looking at a Freshman vs a Junior, we have a Junior vs a Senior. Instead of 2 years off, and limited fall reps Tanner has had 2 years of training and the majority of spring and fall reps. Troy was supposedly in a QB battle for the top spot this year, so he may have had more limited reps, just like last year. Not to mention that the offense will be developed specifically for Tanner instead of Taysom, and this will be the second year in pro-style vs. troy's first year in this new offensive scheme. So even if you are going to ignore that adjusted QBR looks at the strength of schedule, you have to admit that Tanner looks to be positioned to be a much better QB this year. I think it is clear that Tanner is more naturally gifted and has a better upside, regardless of how good or bad he was in his freshman year vs. Troy's Junior year.

I'm interested, on a side note: are there any position groups where you honestly think BYU is better than the U?