It's still obvious. BYU's offense, and just about every other offense in NCAA football, does not perform nearly as well against top defenses. Look at how BYU did in 2008 and 2009 against top 25 defenses, when there was a veteran QB, BYU's greatest TE, BYU's greatest running back and BYU's greatest receiver (2008 only).

In 2008, BYU scored 17.3 PPG against Top 25 defenses and 39.3 PPG against the others, going 0-3 against Top 25 defenses. In 2009, BYU scored 21.25 PPG against Top 25 defenses and 41.8 PPG against the others, going 3-1 against Top 25 defenses. Interestingly, BYU's team defense was rated 59th in 2008, but improved to 28th in 2009.

As stated, like all teams, BYU's offensive output predictably dropped against top defenses. That typically means that the defense has to step up in order for the team to win the games against Top 25 defenses. In 2009, the defense was much better than 2008, and the results are clear. In 2010, the defense statistically played well (mostly in the second half of the season). However, the season was so messed up by subpar coaching in the first half of the season (on both sides of the ball) and in the Utah game (on the offense) that I don't think we can really take much from it in predicting this season's outcome.

Heaps is fine; he is not the messiah, but he is very good and he should improve as long as the coaching is up to the task. That being said, I agree with you that BYU is not going to a BCS game in 2011-12 as (1) they don't get there unless they go undefeated and (2) the likelihood of BYU going undefeated through its schedule is pretty poor (it has only happened twice).