do you have that much faith in the "committee" not to find a reasons to keep who they want out? Seven P5 games a year is nice and all, but do you know any P5 teams that doesn't play at least eight? Do you think a 2 loss Utah team not winning the South but beating BYU gets left out and BYU gets in? How about 2-3 loss SEC, B10, B12, or ACC teams? Six spots go to conference champions, that leaves six spots and you don't think those six aren't likely to be eaten up by teams east of Utah?
I'm not saying that BYU would not get in, but I certainly don't think BYU would be "almost certainly in".