Most of the calories that put people over their optimal consumption levels are going to come from the unnecessary processed sugars and starches, right? It's much harder to overeat steamed vegetables and grilled chicken breast than it is a box of cheezits and/or pizza. If a person is just going after fatty foods day after day like brisket and pulled pork, then that is a different conversation as the effects that has on the body are different. In most cases though (and we'd need more info on the OP and his consumption habits) - the short term weight gain around the waistline is most likely attributable to letting the simple carbs consumption get out of control during a busy time. It happens. But after too long they get broken down and stored as belly fat. So that area can be targeted and provide the most dramatic turnaround considering all other factors are equal. The OP would not even need to exercise at a high intensity to see the results early on. That can come once she/he's dropped some weight and sees energy levels rise and the body & joints are feeling much better.