I don't think you can simply evaluate pre and post-independence recruiting numbers together. The lost of the MWC as a respectable conference and Utah moving to the Pac12 was a game changer. The true question isn't whether recruiting has gone down, but whether it would have gone down more if we'd stayed in the MWC or gone to the AAC. There's really no way to know.
For my money, I think independence is better for recruiting than the MWC. I don't think Ty'Son Williams comes to BYU if we are in the MWC. Same for Jamaal Williams, Nick Kurtz and others.
Just my thoughts.