In short, no expert says it's 3.4% because they never calculate

Mar 17, 2020
12:38:55am

CSoul Intervention Needed

death rate for other diseases from only positive tests, or even hospitalizations for that matter. With others they extrapolate based on ratios from studies and surveys. In any case, the biggest issue with covid is hospitalization rate.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Mar 17, 2020 at 12:38:55am

Message modified by CSoul on Mar 17, 2020 at 12:53:27am

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CSoul

Previous username: tsm26
Bio page: CSoul
Joined: Nov 20, 2005
Last login: May 20, 2024
Total posts: 66,926 (13,999 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Have done a moderate amount of reading on the virus, here's my opinion: 1.......

BleedCougarBlue2

3/16/20 11:11pm

not to mention that in your point #1, deaths from Covid-19 are not even

RugbyCoug

3/16/20 11:19pm

Wow, that is an excellent point since the flu & Covid-19 generally target the...

BleedCougarBlue2

3/16/20 11:27pm

I loathe the media.

idacoug

3/16/20 11:25pm

You & me both, brother. I'd say more but that would probably turn this political

BleedCougarBlue2

3/16/20 11:28pm

Quick question, what are the death rates for the flu vs Covid-19?

ironman1315

3/16/20 11:31pm

It's more deadly than the flu, but it isn't 1.9%. Most are falling in

CSoul

3/16/20 11:39pm

Okay, so let's go with the .5 number, that's more than 2.5 times as dangerous

ironman1315

3/16/20 11:43pm

There are 2.8M deaths annually in the US. Even your 100k from Covid wouldn't be

RugbyCoug

3/16/20 11:48pm

So what exactly counts as a humanitarian crisis?

StalwartBraveTrue

3/17/20 2:31pm

What about the deaths from poverty and mass unemployment as a result of not

Lance71

3/17/20 3:28pm

From what I read from public health professionals, those factors are considered

dratax

3/17/20 3:46pm

No one is ignoring anything. That’s the same point of view

StalwartBraveTrue

3/17/20 3:59pm

And let’s suppose we don’t take enough precautions and a bunch of people

ironman1315

3/17/20 4:59pm

Some people are worried more about their 401k than keeping the death numbers

blackshirts

3/17/20 5:39pm

Sounds like you don't care about the potential suffering due to economic

IceCreamButt

3/17/20 5:56pm

I believe the two week shutdown to slow the spread was the correct action. I'd

blackshirts

3/17/20 6:23pm

Hallelujah if this is limited to 2 weeks; I see it going for months.

kiyoshige

3/17/20 11:39pm

Yeh, if we did nothing possibly. No one ever said don't do anything.

CSoul

3/17/20 12:01am

However, I did what I could to go confirmed case vs confirmed case.

ironman1315

3/16/20 11:46pm

It's here to stay, it will be endemic

CSoul

3/17/20 12:02am

Yup, let's pull a number out of the air instead of what the experts are using.

CougarThug

3/17/20 9:39am

Those numbers are a bad comparison though. DJROSS shows a better one

Lance71

3/17/20 8:37am

No. I compared doctor visits to doctor visits. It’s still substantially worse.

ironman1315

3/17/20 8:50am

Very well said.

gurt

3/16/20 11:34pm

I think your take on the media is a false narrative.

Blueto

3/16/20 11:37pm

It is too bad Italy was the first European country to get hit hard.

CSoul

3/16/20 11:42pm

France is going to be just as bad a week from now

Josef K

3/17/20 12:12am

I don't think they will be as bad as Italy. We will see shortly though.

CSoul

3/17/20 12:18am

Yesterday there was a post showing that every country is following Italy along

dratax

3/17/20 7:31am

You're welcome to your opinion on the MSM. I'll keep mine. Also, you talk.....

BleedCougarBlue2

3/16/20 11:46pm

It can be both. Extreme measures warranted but media still over hyping it.

JmThms

3/17/20 12:31am

I tend to agree until other evidence is presented.

mulletino

3/16/20 11:38pm

Agree

kiyoshige

3/16/20 11:53pm

the problem in your calculations is that without strong precautions and some lockdowns/quarantines, this illness

ChinaFan

3/16/20 11:59pm

Again, the 3.4% death rate is just bogus. How many times does it have to be

CSoul

3/17/20 12:05am

My reason for frustration is just that we should use proper numbers

CSoul

3/17/20 12:13am

again, where do you get your numbers. Just simple math shows that 3.4% is holding consistent across the world

ChinaFan

3/17/20 12:29am

It's all right because you have been dealing with more important things

CSoul

3/17/20 12:35am

I don't know where you get your numbers, but it's held true in China. And no reason to believe it will change.

ChinaFan

3/17/20 12:26am

From all the recent experts and studies. Not trying to argue, but here are some

CSoul

3/17/20 12:31am

In short, no expert says it's 3.4% because they never calculate

CSoul

3/17/20 12:38am

death rate is in fact based on total deaths divided by total cases. Nothing else. And it's prescriptive based on

ChinaFan

3/17/20 1:17am

Well, you literally disagree with every foremost expert in the

CSoul

3/17/20 1:34am

Isn't the ability of the health system to process more patients the key variable

dratax

3/17/20 7:42am

The main variable is percentage of elderly in a population. Hospital capacity

CSoul

3/17/20 7:48am

You post a lot on this. Curious as to your professional background?

JohnnyB

3/17/20 6:01am

just a lowly guy, living in China, who can read an interpret case rates and casualties. The fact that there are other

ChinaFan

3/17/20 11:20pm

What's made the biggest difference in Shanghai, Beijing, and...

So it goes...

3/17/20 11:33pm

The biggest difference is that Chinese New Year happened. It was a natural barrier to the virus spread, because people

ChinaFan

3/17/20 11:46pm

China took measure that we could never take

cougarblue

3/17/20 12:07am

From what I know, your issue is you focus on deaths

CougarVeteran

3/17/20 12:06am

Flu has been around for a long time, enough time, that peoples bodies have...

So it goes...

3/17/20 12:10am

I think it's more complicated than that. More people seem to actually have

CSoul

3/17/20 12:17am

Your analysis agrees with what I've read about flu and Covid-19 symptoms.

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 12:21am

Yes, you're right. I was just trying to show some differences between COVID and

So it goes...

3/17/20 12:33am

I read today that a husband of a wife who was infected with coronavirus while...

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 12:19am

Here is the link. The man who writes the blog is from my city.

kiyoshige

3/17/20 7:08am

I completely agree with you

Run-DMT

3/17/20 12:13am

Add me to the physician list

kiyoshige

3/17/20 7:20am

#5 Social Media - especially Twitter gets a heaping pile of blame

bluelands

3/17/20 5:12am

Who to believe? MSM is lying. Trump says it’s a hoax. Trump supporters cheer.

JohnnyB

3/17/20 5:26am

RE: Who to believe? MSM is lying. Trump says it’s a hoax. Trump supporters

Misteak

3/17/20 5:36am

Show me objective stats, from multiple, unbiased sources, and logical...........

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:11pm

Solid take. Some people don’t know the devastation and trauma of losing a job.

Misteak

3/17/20 5:33am

You did some reading!!?

Bolso

3/17/20 5:49am

Wait... 1%? What happened to 3%?

bluelands

3/17/20 6:24am

RE: Wait... 1%? What happened to 3%?

Bolso

3/17/20 6:58am

I have spent an entire career working with experts in different fields

bluelands

3/17/20 7:17am

RE: I have spent an entire career working with experts in different fields

Bolso

3/17/20 10:01am

Like I said, lose the sarcasm. No one cares what you (supposedly) know until..

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:26pm

3.4% is the latest...

blackshirts

3/17/20 7:32am

No it isn't because you don't calculate death rate by deaths / cases tested

CSoul

3/17/20 8:04am

If you want to influence people/opinions, I recommend you lose the sarcasm.

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:20pm

I don't claim to be a medical genius, I said I had an "opinion". Apparently I...

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:16pm

We need the resident expert to weigh in here

maxpowers

3/17/20 6:56am

Who's that? I never claimed it was me.

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:22pm

Even Trump said yesterday that the media had been “fair”

mannheimadler

3/17/20 7:15am

That is news to me. When did he say this? To whom did he say it?

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:23pm

I think your #1 point is a major understatement. Too many people are

blackshirts

3/17/20 7:30am

Stuff like this causing people to run to urgent care demanding to be tested

bluelands

3/17/20 8:41am

Other states will follow NY lead with 90-day mortgage relief

mindzeYe

3/20/20 1:57am

I thought this Ted talk had some excellent information

dratax

3/17/20 8:20am

Mexico on has 78 cases. We need to do what they are doing!

StalwartBraveTrue

3/17/20 8:55am

Some of the new information coming out indicates that lung damage is a

airwolf

3/17/20 9:03am

uneducated post. sheesh! you have no idea ...

mindzeYe

3/17/20 9:14am

So educate me.

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:30pm

This is a dangerous, uneducated post. As noted elsewhere, the idea of isolating the vulnerable has not worked in the UK.

WaybackCougar

3/17/20 9:55am

Proof? Where are your multiple, objective sources? Hyperlinks?

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:32pm

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