The main variable is percentage of elderly in a population. Hospital capacity

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Mar 17, 2020
7:48:54am

CSoul Intervention Needed

would be important as well, but there are many variables, some of which we have no idea.

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CSoul

Previous username: tsm26
Bio page: CSoul
Joined: Nov 20, 2005
Last login: Jun 2, 2024
Total posts: 67,118 (14,064 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Have done a moderate amount of reading on the virus, here's my opinion: 1.......

BleedCougarBlue2

3/16/20 11:11pm

not to mention that in your point #1, deaths from Covid-19 are not even

RugbyCoug

3/16/20 11:19pm

Wow, that is an excellent point since the flu & Covid-19 generally target the...

BleedCougarBlue2

3/16/20 11:27pm

I loathe the media.

idacoug

3/16/20 11:25pm

You & me both, brother. I'd say more but that would probably turn this political

BleedCougarBlue2

3/16/20 11:28pm

Quick question, what are the death rates for the flu vs Covid-19?

ironman1315

3/16/20 11:31pm

It's more deadly than the flu, but it isn't 1.9%. Most are falling in

CSoul

3/16/20 11:39pm

Okay, so let's go with the .5 number, that's more than 2.5 times as dangerous

ironman1315

3/16/20 11:43pm

There are 2.8M deaths annually in the US. Even your 100k from Covid wouldn't be

RugbyCoug

3/16/20 11:48pm

So what exactly counts as a humanitarian crisis?

StalwartBraveTrue

3/17/20 2:31pm

What about the deaths from poverty and mass unemployment as a result of not

Lance71

3/17/20 3:28pm

From what I read from public health professionals, those factors are considered

dratax

3/17/20 3:46pm

No one is ignoring anything. That’s the same point of view

StalwartBraveTrue

3/17/20 3:59pm

And let’s suppose we don’t take enough precautions and a bunch of people

ironman1315

3/17/20 4:59pm

Some people are worried more about their 401k than keeping the death numbers

blackshirts

3/17/20 5:39pm

Sounds like you don't care about the potential suffering due to economic

IceCreamButt

3/17/20 5:56pm

I believe the two week shutdown to slow the spread was the correct action. I'd

blackshirts

3/17/20 6:23pm

Hallelujah if this is limited to 2 weeks; I see it going for months.

kiyoshige

3/17/20 11:39pm

Yeh, if we did nothing possibly. No one ever said don't do anything.

CSoul

3/17/20 12:01am

However, I did what I could to go confirmed case vs confirmed case.

ironman1315

3/16/20 11:46pm

It's here to stay, it will be endemic

CSoul

3/17/20 12:02am

Yup, let's pull a number out of the air instead of what the experts are using.

CougarThug

3/17/20 9:39am

Those numbers are a bad comparison though. DJROSS shows a better one

Lance71

3/17/20 8:37am

No. I compared doctor visits to doctor visits. It’s still substantially worse.

ironman1315

3/17/20 8:50am

Very well said.

gurt

3/16/20 11:34pm

I think your take on the media is a false narrative.

Blueto

3/16/20 11:37pm

It is too bad Italy was the first European country to get hit hard.

CSoul

3/16/20 11:42pm

France is going to be just as bad a week from now

Josef K

3/17/20 12:12am

I don't think they will be as bad as Italy. We will see shortly though.

CSoul

3/17/20 12:18am

Yesterday there was a post showing that every country is following Italy along

dratax

3/17/20 7:31am

You're welcome to your opinion on the MSM. I'll keep mine. Also, you talk.....

BleedCougarBlue2

3/16/20 11:46pm

It can be both. Extreme measures warranted but media still over hyping it.

JmThms

3/17/20 12:31am

I tend to agree until other evidence is presented.

mulletino

3/16/20 11:38pm

Agree

kiyoshige

3/16/20 11:53pm

the problem in your calculations is that without strong precautions and some lockdowns/quarantines, this illness

ChinaFan

3/16/20 11:59pm

Again, the 3.4% death rate is just bogus. How many times does it have to be

CSoul

3/17/20 12:05am

My reason for frustration is just that we should use proper numbers

CSoul

3/17/20 12:13am

again, where do you get your numbers. Just simple math shows that 3.4% is holding consistent across the world

ChinaFan

3/17/20 12:29am

It's all right because you have been dealing with more important things

CSoul

3/17/20 12:35am

I don't know where you get your numbers, but it's held true in China. And no reason to believe it will change.

ChinaFan

3/17/20 12:26am

From all the recent experts and studies. Not trying to argue, but here are some

CSoul

3/17/20 12:31am

In short, no expert says it's 3.4% because they never calculate

CSoul

3/17/20 12:38am

death rate is in fact based on total deaths divided by total cases. Nothing else. And it's prescriptive based on

ChinaFan

3/17/20 1:17am

Well, you literally disagree with every foremost expert in the

CSoul

3/17/20 1:34am

Isn't the ability of the health system to process more patients the key variable

dratax

3/17/20 7:42am

The main variable is percentage of elderly in a population. Hospital capacity

CSoul

3/17/20 7:48am

You post a lot on this. Curious as to your professional background?

JohnnyB

3/17/20 6:01am

just a lowly guy, living in China, who can read an interpret case rates and casualties. The fact that there are other

ChinaFan

3/17/20 11:20pm

What's made the biggest difference in Shanghai, Beijing, and...

So it goes...

3/17/20 11:33pm

The biggest difference is that Chinese New Year happened. It was a natural barrier to the virus spread, because people

ChinaFan

3/17/20 11:46pm

China took measure that we could never take

cougarblue

3/17/20 12:07am

From what I know, your issue is you focus on deaths

CougarVeteran

3/17/20 12:06am

Flu has been around for a long time, enough time, that peoples bodies have...

So it goes...

3/17/20 12:10am

I think it's more complicated than that. More people seem to actually have

CSoul

3/17/20 12:17am

Your analysis agrees with what I've read about flu and Covid-19 symptoms.

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 12:21am

Yes, you're right. I was just trying to show some differences between COVID and

So it goes...

3/17/20 12:33am

I read today that a husband of a wife who was infected with coronavirus while...

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 12:19am

Here is the link. The man who writes the blog is from my city.

kiyoshige

3/17/20 7:08am

I completely agree with you

Run-DMT

3/17/20 12:13am

Add me to the physician list

kiyoshige

3/17/20 7:20am

#5 Social Media - especially Twitter gets a heaping pile of blame

bluelands

3/17/20 5:12am

Who to believe? MSM is lying. Trump says it’s a hoax. Trump supporters cheer.

JohnnyB

3/17/20 5:26am

RE: Who to believe? MSM is lying. Trump says it’s a hoax. Trump supporters

Misteak

3/17/20 5:36am

Show me objective stats, from multiple, unbiased sources, and logical...........

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:11pm

Solid take. Some people don’t know the devastation and trauma of losing a job.

Misteak

3/17/20 5:33am

You did some reading!!?

Bolso

3/17/20 5:49am

Wait... 1%? What happened to 3%?

bluelands

3/17/20 6:24am

RE: Wait... 1%? What happened to 3%?

Bolso

3/17/20 6:58am

I have spent an entire career working with experts in different fields

bluelands

3/17/20 7:17am

RE: I have spent an entire career working with experts in different fields

Bolso

3/17/20 10:01am

Like I said, lose the sarcasm. No one cares what you (supposedly) know until..

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:26pm

3.4% is the latest...

blackshirts

3/17/20 7:32am

No it isn't because you don't calculate death rate by deaths / cases tested

CSoul

3/17/20 8:04am

If you want to influence people/opinions, I recommend you lose the sarcasm.

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:20pm

I don't claim to be a medical genius, I said I had an "opinion". Apparently I...

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:16pm

We need the resident expert to weigh in here

maxpowers

3/17/20 6:56am

Who's that? I never claimed it was me.

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:22pm

Even Trump said yesterday that the media had been “fair”

mannheimadler

3/17/20 7:15am

That is news to me. When did he say this? To whom did he say it?

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:23pm

I think your #1 point is a major understatement. Too many people are

blackshirts

3/17/20 7:30am

Stuff like this causing people to run to urgent care demanding to be tested

bluelands

3/17/20 8:41am

Other states will follow NY lead with 90-day mortgage relief

mindzeYe

3/20/20 1:57am

I thought this Ted talk had some excellent information

dratax

3/17/20 8:20am

Mexico on has 78 cases. We need to do what they are doing!

StalwartBraveTrue

3/17/20 8:55am

Some of the new information coming out indicates that lung damage is a

airwolf

3/17/20 9:03am

uneducated post. sheesh! you have no idea ...

mindzeYe

3/17/20 9:14am

So educate me.

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:30pm

This is a dangerous, uneducated post. As noted elsewhere, the idea of isolating the vulnerable has not worked in the UK.

WaybackCougar

3/17/20 9:55am

Proof? Where are your multiple, objective sources? Hyperlinks?

BleedCougarBlue2

3/17/20 11:32pm

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