Did the Imperial college forecast of millions dead get revised 25x lower?

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Mar 26, 2020
1:49:00pm

Busiturtle Intervention Needed

Did the Imperial college forecast of millions dead get revised 25x lower?

Isn't that rather significant?

"Ferguson thus dropped his (UK) prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday. Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the […]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

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Busiturtle

Previous username: danwut
Bio page: Busiturtle
Joined: Nov 29, 2001
Last login: Jan 4, 2023
Total posts: 56,347 (2,185 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Did the Imperial college forecast of millions dead get revised 25x lower?

Busiturtle

3/26/20 1:49pm

Very significant. Makes me sad that he was so far off before

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 1:50pm

That guy is a clown. Doesn’t know jack about jack

shammy

3/26/20 1:51pm

He was an expert in epidemiology not modeling or writing code

CSoul

3/26/20 1:51pm

Whatever the reason, he started a lot of this

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 1:53pm

He singlehandedly cancelled March Madness

Busiturtle

3/26/20 1:52pm

March Madness was canceled 4 days before he published his paper

The Shazad

3/26/20 1:54pm

Hmm, so who else was predicting millions dead?

Busiturtle

3/26/20 1:57pm

what is that supposed to mean?

The Shazad

3/26/20 1:58pm

Who struck fear in the NCAA to cancel?

Busiturtle

3/26/20 1:59pm

not this guy

The Shazad

3/26/20 2:01pm

Who posted that mathematician's tweet claiming 480000 Americans would die?

bluelands

3/26/20 2:03pm

And that was by the end of May iirc

bluelands

3/26/20 2:11pm

Yep, this mostly impacted the increased timeline and the push to

CSoul

3/26/20 2:06pm

The "experts" are never wrong. Don't question their authority.

Jericho

3/26/20 1:52pm

And the science is settled. Maybe the math is now settled also. If not...

AZ Coug

3/26/20 2:10pm

Precisely the problem with these models. Garbage in, garbage out. And we based

RugbyCoug

3/26/20 1:52pm

When you see the word "model", realize it's just a guess.

HighHorse

3/26/20 2:03pm

Aren’t his changes based on the change in behavior of society? If so it makes

Odysseus

3/26/20 1:52pm

Yes. There's so much spin city on this. Dailywire at the forefront of it too.

The Old Y

3/26/20 1:53pm

Dude, the spreading faster is WHY his estimates went down

CSoul

3/26/20 2:02pm

RE: Dude, the spreading faster is WHY his estimates went down

The Old Y

3/26/20 2:17pm

That doesn't contradict anything I said

CSoul

3/26/20 2:18pm

Then your post doesn't address any comment I made either.

The Old Y

3/26/20 2:20pm

Not possible. "the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago,"

boogers

3/26/20 2:05pm

You don't need 2 weeks to start modeling a lockdown. That's how long it takes

chilango

3/26/20 2:18pm

No, his R0 was wrong including vastly underestimating asymptomatic cases

CSoul

3/26/20 1:55pm

He assumed before we would practice social distancing

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 1:56pm

Yes, this is what the articles claim. Many here claim his model was just wrong.

chilango

3/26/20 2:14pm

can people please watch his testimony here before jumping to conclusions?

The Shazad

3/26/20 1:55pm

No, they cannot. Where do you think we are, anyway???

ReyOso

3/26/20 1:57pm

Um, I've been reading his responses on Twitter and analysis

CSoul

3/26/20 1:58pm

I know you are - I'm not talking about you

The Shazad

3/26/20 2:06pm

He's clearly seen new data to drastically change his assumptions.

Bostonblue

3/26/20 2:14pm

Fair enough. Almost all people just read the headline.

CSoul

3/26/20 2:15pm

Dude was wrong. By a lot. Trying to spin it. Poorly.

shammy

3/26/20 2:25pm

High end and low end estimates. Truth is probably in the middle.

Blue Ghost

3/26/20 2:03pm

According to his testimony, his models changed due, in part, to the lock down.

Josef K

3/26/20 2:09pm

"the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago" ??? Is that incorrect?

boogers

3/26/20 2:10pm

I thought they started last week, but not sure. His statement that the UK should

Josef K

3/26/20 2:12pm

He can model a lockdown in like 2 seconds. You don't need a lockdown to be in

chilango

3/26/20 2:16pm

read his initial report. He clearly factored in strict social distancing in his

Bostonblue

3/26/20 2:22pm

This says the 500,000 UK deaths are the "do-nothing" scenario (chart on pg. 13),

chilango

3/26/20 2:30pm

He's now saying the R0 factor is above 3 but is now "predicting" less than 20K

Bostonblue

3/26/20 3:34pm

Do you agree that the 500K UK deaths was always clearly labeled as the

chilango

3/26/20 3:50pm

yep.

Bostonblue

3/26/20 3:53pm

The other major factor to consider is that the "lockdown" scenario he modeled,

chilango

3/26/20 6:56pm

they did model it

The Shazad

3/26/20 2:28pm

Right. It's more correct to say the the 500K deaths were his "do-nothing"

chilango

3/26/20 2:31pm

Apparently not. Looks like people were confused and didn't realize that the 500k

chilango

3/26/20 2:37pm

It was lockdown and severe restrictions for 12-18 months

CSoul

3/26/20 2:51pm

OK. But do you agree that the 500K deaths was always the "do-nothing" scenario?

chilango

3/26/20 2:56pm

I don't think I ever said he went from 500k to his new one. The better articles

CSoul

3/26/20 3:02pm

So that’s a Yes? I’m trying to answer the question in the OP above.

chilango

3/26/20 3:08pm

Yes

CSoul

3/26/20 3:15pm

Also:

chilango

3/26/20 6:57pm

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