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Mar 26, 2020
2:09
:43
pm
Josef K
Intervention Needed
According to his testimony, his models changed due, in part, to the lock down.
That the lock down is still necessary because the virus is more contagious than originally thought.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Mar 26, 2020 at 2:09:43pm
Message modified by Josef K on Mar 26, 2020 at 2:11:48pm
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Josef K
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UCB Coug
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Jay Kay
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Josef K
Joined
Jan 12, 2011
Last login
Jun 9, 2020
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Messages
Author
Time
Did the Imperial college forecast of millions dead get revised 25x lower?
Busiturtle
3/26/20 1:49pm
Very significant. Makes me sad that he was so far off before
kimdaddy35
3/26/20 1:50pm
That guy is a clown. Doesn’t know jack about jack
shammy
3/26/20 1:51pm
He was an expert in epidemiology not modeling or writing code
CSoul
3/26/20 1:51pm
Whatever the reason, he started a lot of this
kimdaddy35
3/26/20 1:53pm
He singlehandedly cancelled March Madness
Busiturtle
3/26/20 1:52pm
March Madness was canceled 4 days before he published his paper
The Shazad
3/26/20 1:54pm
Hmm, so who else was predicting millions dead?
Busiturtle
3/26/20 1:57pm
what is that supposed to mean?
The Shazad
3/26/20 1:58pm
Who struck fear in the NCAA to cancel?
Busiturtle
3/26/20 1:59pm
not this guy
The Shazad
3/26/20 2:01pm
Who posted that mathematician's tweet claiming 480000 Americans would die?
bluelands
3/26/20 2:03pm
And that was by the end of May iirc
bluelands
3/26/20 2:11pm
Yep, this mostly impacted the increased timeline and the push to
CSoul
3/26/20 2:06pm
The "experts" are never wrong. Don't question their authority.
Jericho
3/26/20 1:52pm
And the science is settled. Maybe the math is now settled also. If not...
AZ Coug
3/26/20 2:10pm
Precisely the problem with these models. Garbage in, garbage out. And we based
RugbyCoug
3/26/20 1:52pm
When you see the word "model", realize it's just a guess.
HighHorse
3/26/20 2:03pm
Aren’t his changes based on the change in behavior of society? If so it makes
Odysseus
3/26/20 1:52pm
Yes. There's so much spin city on this. Dailywire at the forefront of it too.
The Old Y
3/26/20 1:53pm
Dude, the spreading faster is WHY his estimates went down
CSoul
3/26/20 2:02pm
RE: Dude, the spreading faster is WHY his estimates went down
The Old Y
3/26/20 2:17pm
That doesn't contradict anything I said
CSoul
3/26/20 2:18pm
Then your post doesn't address any comment I made either.
The Old Y
3/26/20 2:20pm
Not possible. "the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago,"
boogers
3/26/20 2:05pm
You don't need 2 weeks to start modeling a lockdown. That's how long it takes
chilango
3/26/20 2:18pm
No, his R0 was wrong including vastly underestimating asymptomatic cases
CSoul
3/26/20 1:55pm
He assumed before we would practice social distancing
kimdaddy35
3/26/20 1:56pm
Yes, this is what the articles claim. Many here claim his model was just wrong.
chilango
3/26/20 2:14pm
can people please watch his testimony here before jumping to conclusions?
The Shazad
3/26/20 1:55pm
No, they cannot. Where do you think we are, anyway???
ReyOso
3/26/20 1:57pm
Um, I've been reading his responses on Twitter and analysis
CSoul
3/26/20 1:58pm
I know you are - I'm not talking about you
The Shazad
3/26/20 2:06pm
He's clearly seen new data to drastically change his assumptions.
Bostonblue
3/26/20 2:14pm
Fair enough. Almost all people just read the headline.
CSoul
3/26/20 2:15pm
Dude was wrong. By a lot. Trying to spin it. Poorly.
shammy
3/26/20 2:25pm
High end and low end estimates. Truth is probably in the middle.
Blue Ghost
3/26/20 2:03pm
According to his testimony, his models changed due, in part, to the lock down.
Josef K
3/26/20 2:09pm
"the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago" ??? Is that incorrect?
boogers
3/26/20 2:10pm
I thought they started last week, but not sure. His statement that the UK should
Josef K
3/26/20 2:12pm
He can model a lockdown in like 2 seconds. You don't need a lockdown to be in
chilango
3/26/20 2:16pm
read his initial report. He clearly factored in strict social distancing in his
Bostonblue
3/26/20 2:22pm
This says the 500,000 UK deaths are the "do-nothing" scenario (chart on pg. 13),
chilango
3/26/20 2:30pm
He's now saying the R0 factor is above 3 but is now "predicting" less than 20K
Bostonblue
3/26/20 3:34pm
Do you agree that the 500K UK deaths was always clearly labeled as the
chilango
3/26/20 3:50pm
yep.
Bostonblue
3/26/20 3:53pm
The other major factor to consider is that the "lockdown" scenario he modeled,
chilango
3/26/20 6:56pm
they did model it
The Shazad
3/26/20 2:28pm
Right. It's more correct to say the the 500K deaths were his "do-nothing"
chilango
3/26/20 2:31pm
Apparently not. Looks like people were confused and didn't realize that the 500k
chilango
3/26/20 2:37pm
It was lockdown and severe restrictions for 12-18 months
CSoul
3/26/20 2:51pm
OK. But do you agree that the 500K deaths was always the "do-nothing" scenario?
chilango
3/26/20 2:56pm
I don't think I ever said he went from 500k to his new one. The better articles
CSoul
3/26/20 3:02pm
So that’s a Yes? I’m trying to answer the question in the OP above.
chilango
3/26/20 3:08pm
Yes
CSoul
3/26/20 3:15pm
Also:
chilango
3/26/20 6:57pm
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