Mar 26, 2020
3:34:41pm
3:34:41pm
He's now saying the R0 factor is above 3 but is now "predicting" less than 20K
in deaths. He further testified that the number of deaths could be far less than that.
In his initial report (pg. 13), he gave a range of 12K - 120K assuming a R0 factor of 2.6. This range assumed an intense TWO YEAR period of strict conformance with all potential social distancing measures, including social distancing the ENTIRE population.
In short, you can't get to these numbers unless some of his underlying assumptions changed.
What's also concerning is that Ferguson is refusing to release his code so that other experts can see how he arrived at these numbers.
In his initial report (pg. 13), he gave a range of 12K - 120K assuming a R0 factor of 2.6. This range assumed an intense TWO YEAR period of strict conformance with all potential social distancing measures, including social distancing the ENTIRE population.
In short, you can't get to these numbers unless some of his underlying assumptions changed.
What's also concerning is that Ferguson is refusing to release his code so that other experts can see how he arrived at these numbers.
Originally posted on Mar 26, 2020 at 3:34:41pm
Message modified by Bostonblue on Mar 26, 2020 at 3:53:52pm
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