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Mar 26, 2020
2:14
:06
pm
chilango
Intervention Needed
Yes, this is what the articles claim. Many here claim his model was just wrong.
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chilango
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chilango
Joined
Jul 23, 2009
Last login
Dec 27, 2020
Total posts
25,771 (33 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Did the Imperial college forecast of millions dead get revised 25x lower?
Busiturtle
3/26/20 1:49pm
Very significant. Makes me sad that he was so far off before
kimdaddy35
3/26/20 1:50pm
That guy is a clown. Doesn’t know jack about jack
shammy
3/26/20 1:51pm
He was an expert in epidemiology not modeling or writing code
CSoul
3/26/20 1:51pm
Whatever the reason, he started a lot of this
kimdaddy35
3/26/20 1:53pm
He singlehandedly cancelled March Madness
Busiturtle
3/26/20 1:52pm
March Madness was canceled 4 days before he published his paper
The Shazad
3/26/20 1:54pm
Hmm, so who else was predicting millions dead?
Busiturtle
3/26/20 1:57pm
what is that supposed to mean?
The Shazad
3/26/20 1:58pm
Who struck fear in the NCAA to cancel?
Busiturtle
3/26/20 1:59pm
not this guy
The Shazad
3/26/20 2:01pm
Who posted that mathematician's tweet claiming 480000 Americans would die?
bluelands
3/26/20 2:03pm
And that was by the end of May iirc
bluelands
3/26/20 2:11pm
Yep, this mostly impacted the increased timeline and the push to
CSoul
3/26/20 2:06pm
The "experts" are never wrong. Don't question their authority.
Jericho
3/26/20 1:52pm
And the science is settled. Maybe the math is now settled also. If not...
AZ Coug
3/26/20 2:10pm
Precisely the problem with these models. Garbage in, garbage out. And we based
RugbyCoug
3/26/20 1:52pm
When you see the word "model", realize it's just a guess.
HighHorse
3/26/20 2:03pm
Aren’t his changes based on the change in behavior of society? If so it makes
Odysseus
3/26/20 1:52pm
Yes. There's so much spin city on this. Dailywire at the forefront of it too.
The Old Y
3/26/20 1:53pm
Dude, the spreading faster is WHY his estimates went down
CSoul
3/26/20 2:02pm
RE: Dude, the spreading faster is WHY his estimates went down
The Old Y
3/26/20 2:17pm
That doesn't contradict anything I said
CSoul
3/26/20 2:18pm
Then your post doesn't address any comment I made either.
The Old Y
3/26/20 2:20pm
Not possible. "the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago,"
boogers
3/26/20 2:05pm
You don't need 2 weeks to start modeling a lockdown. That's how long it takes
chilango
3/26/20 2:18pm
No, his R0 was wrong including vastly underestimating asymptomatic cases
CSoul
3/26/20 1:55pm
He assumed before we would practice social distancing
kimdaddy35
3/26/20 1:56pm
Yes, this is what the articles claim. Many here claim his model was just wrong.
chilango
3/26/20 2:14pm
can people please watch his testimony here before jumping to conclusions?
The Shazad
3/26/20 1:55pm
No, they cannot. Where do you think we are, anyway???
ReyOso
3/26/20 1:57pm
Um, I've been reading his responses on Twitter and analysis
CSoul
3/26/20 1:58pm
I know you are - I'm not talking about you
The Shazad
3/26/20 2:06pm
He's clearly seen new data to drastically change his assumptions.
Bostonblue
3/26/20 2:14pm
Fair enough. Almost all people just read the headline.
CSoul
3/26/20 2:15pm
Dude was wrong. By a lot. Trying to spin it. Poorly.
shammy
3/26/20 2:25pm
High end and low end estimates. Truth is probably in the middle.
Blue Ghost
3/26/20 2:03pm
According to his testimony, his models changed due, in part, to the lock down.
Josef K
3/26/20 2:09pm
"the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago" ??? Is that incorrect?
boogers
3/26/20 2:10pm
I thought they started last week, but not sure. His statement that the UK should
Josef K
3/26/20 2:12pm
He can model a lockdown in like 2 seconds. You don't need a lockdown to be in
chilango
3/26/20 2:16pm
read his initial report. He clearly factored in strict social distancing in his
Bostonblue
3/26/20 2:22pm
This says the 500,000 UK deaths are the "do-nothing" scenario (chart on pg. 13),
chilango
3/26/20 2:30pm
He's now saying the R0 factor is above 3 but is now "predicting" less than 20K
Bostonblue
3/26/20 3:34pm
Do you agree that the 500K UK deaths was always clearly labeled as the
chilango
3/26/20 3:50pm
yep.
Bostonblue
3/26/20 3:53pm
The other major factor to consider is that the "lockdown" scenario he modeled,
chilango
3/26/20 6:56pm
they did model it
The Shazad
3/26/20 2:28pm
Right. It's more correct to say the the 500K deaths were his "do-nothing"
chilango
3/26/20 2:31pm
Apparently not. Looks like people were confused and didn't realize that the 500k
chilango
3/26/20 2:37pm
It was lockdown and severe restrictions for 12-18 months
CSoul
3/26/20 2:51pm
OK. But do you agree that the 500K deaths was always the "do-nothing" scenario?
chilango
3/26/20 2:56pm
I don't think I ever said he went from 500k to his new one. The better articles
CSoul
3/26/20 3:02pm
So that’s a Yes? I’m trying to answer the question in the OP above.
chilango
3/26/20 3:08pm
Yes
CSoul
3/26/20 3:15pm
Also:
chilango
3/26/20 6:57pm
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