Mar 26, 2020
6:56:14pm
chilango Intervention Needed
The other major factor to consider is that the "lockdown" scenario he modeled,
which he called "suppression", was much tamer than the shelter-in-place actually implemented in the UK and many other places. You can see this on page 6 in his paper.

For example, for this scenario he assumed that 25% of universities would remain open, and he didn't assume any closures of businesses, parks, theaters, stadiums, etc. Not really much of a lockdown at all, mostly just school cancellation. This accounts in large part for why the 18 months he initially mentioned are no longer required.
chilango
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chilango
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