You don't need 2 weeks to start modeling a lockdown. That's how long it takes

Mar 26, 2020
2:18:31pm

chilango Intervention Needed

for the impact to start affecting cases and deaths in real life.

The whole point of a model is to see how things will play out before they actually start to happen.

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chilango

Bio page: chilango
Joined: Jul 23, 2009
Last login: Dec 27, 2020
Total posts: 25,771 (33 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Did the Imperial college forecast of millions dead get revised 25x lower?

Busiturtle

3/26/20 1:49pm

Very significant. Makes me sad that he was so far off before

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 1:50pm

That guy is a clown. Doesn’t know jack about jack

shammy

3/26/20 1:51pm

He was an expert in epidemiology not modeling or writing code

CSoul

3/26/20 1:51pm

Whatever the reason, he started a lot of this

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 1:53pm

He singlehandedly cancelled March Madness

Busiturtle

3/26/20 1:52pm

March Madness was canceled 4 days before he published his paper

The Shazad

3/26/20 1:54pm

Hmm, so who else was predicting millions dead?

Busiturtle

3/26/20 1:57pm

what is that supposed to mean?

The Shazad

3/26/20 1:58pm

Who struck fear in the NCAA to cancel?

Busiturtle

3/26/20 1:59pm

not this guy

The Shazad

3/26/20 2:01pm

Who posted that mathematician's tweet claiming 480000 Americans would die?

bluelands

3/26/20 2:03pm

And that was by the end of May iirc

bluelands

3/26/20 2:11pm

Yep, this mostly impacted the increased timeline and the push to

CSoul

3/26/20 2:06pm

The "experts" are never wrong. Don't question their authority.

Jericho

3/26/20 1:52pm

And the science is settled. Maybe the math is now settled also. If not...

AZ Coug

3/26/20 2:10pm

Precisely the problem with these models. Garbage in, garbage out. And we based

RugbyCoug

3/26/20 1:52pm

When you see the word "model", realize it's just a guess.

HighHorse

3/26/20 2:03pm

Aren’t his changes based on the change in behavior of society? If so it makes

Odysseus

3/26/20 1:52pm

Yes. There's so much spin city on this. Dailywire at the forefront of it too.

The Old Y

3/26/20 1:53pm

Dude, the spreading faster is WHY his estimates went down

CSoul

3/26/20 2:02pm

RE: Dude, the spreading faster is WHY his estimates went down

The Old Y

3/26/20 2:17pm

That doesn't contradict anything I said

CSoul

3/26/20 2:18pm

Then your post doesn't address any comment I made either.

The Old Y

3/26/20 2:20pm

Not possible. "the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago,"

boogers

3/26/20 2:05pm

You don't need 2 weeks to start modeling a lockdown. That's how long it takes

chilango

3/26/20 2:18pm

No, his R0 was wrong including vastly underestimating asymptomatic cases

CSoul

3/26/20 1:55pm

He assumed before we would practice social distancing

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 1:56pm

Yes, this is what the articles claim. Many here claim his model was just wrong.

chilango

3/26/20 2:14pm

can people please watch his testimony here before jumping to conclusions?

The Shazad

3/26/20 1:55pm

No, they cannot. Where do you think we are, anyway???

ReyOso

3/26/20 1:57pm

Um, I've been reading his responses on Twitter and analysis

CSoul

3/26/20 1:58pm

I know you are - I'm not talking about you

The Shazad

3/26/20 2:06pm

He's clearly seen new data to drastically change his assumptions.

Bostonblue

3/26/20 2:14pm

Fair enough. Almost all people just read the headline.

CSoul

3/26/20 2:15pm

Dude was wrong. By a lot. Trying to spin it. Poorly.

shammy

3/26/20 2:25pm

High end and low end estimates. Truth is probably in the middle.

Blue Ghost

3/26/20 2:03pm

According to his testimony, his models changed due, in part, to the lock down.

Josef K

3/26/20 2:09pm

"the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago" ??? Is that incorrect?

boogers

3/26/20 2:10pm

I thought they started last week, but not sure. His statement that the UK should

Josef K

3/26/20 2:12pm

He can model a lockdown in like 2 seconds. You don't need a lockdown to be in

chilango

3/26/20 2:16pm

read his initial report. He clearly factored in strict social distancing in his

Bostonblue

3/26/20 2:22pm

This says the 500,000 UK deaths are the "do-nothing" scenario (chart on pg. 13),

chilango

3/26/20 2:30pm

He's now saying the R0 factor is above 3 but is now "predicting" less than 20K

Bostonblue

3/26/20 3:34pm

Do you agree that the 500K UK deaths was always clearly labeled as the

chilango

3/26/20 3:50pm

yep.

Bostonblue

3/26/20 3:53pm

The other major factor to consider is that the "lockdown" scenario he modeled,

chilango

3/26/20 6:56pm

they did model it

The Shazad

3/26/20 2:28pm

Right. It's more correct to say the the 500K deaths were his "do-nothing"

chilango

3/26/20 2:31pm

Apparently not. Looks like people were confused and didn't realize that the 500k

chilango

3/26/20 2:37pm

It was lockdown and severe restrictions for 12-18 months

CSoul

3/26/20 2:51pm

OK. But do you agree that the 500K deaths was always the "do-nothing" scenario?

chilango

3/26/20 2:56pm

I don't think I ever said he went from 500k to his new one. The better articles

CSoul

3/26/20 3:02pm

So that’s a Yes? I’m trying to answer the question in the OP above.

chilango

3/26/20 3:08pm

Yes

CSoul

3/26/20 3:15pm

Also:

chilango

3/26/20 6:57pm

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