The best case scenario by following the strict guidelines was a million US deaths

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Mar 27, 2020
12:29:37am

JohnnyComeLately Bring back NHL category

The best case scenario by following the strict guidelines was a million US deaths

The New York Times

The Best-Case Outcome for the Coronavirus, and the Worst

Will we endure 2.2 million deaths? Or will we manage to turn things around?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-outcomes.html[https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-outcomes.amp.html]

So can you see why people are saying this is a walk back? His initial best case for following all the guidelines was a million deaths with over 2 million if we did nothing.

That is what most of us are arguing. We are taking it seriously but when you say best case is 7 figures of deaths and now changing it to be orders of magnitude less that is walking back. And it makes the author seem like a fear monger.

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JohnnyComeLately

Previous username: BigReedThunder
Bio page: JohnnyComeLately
Joined: Mar 23, 2015
Last login: Apr 26, 2024
Total posts: 81,332 (60,830 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being “walked back.”

3/26/20 8:57pm

RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:00pm

RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being

coolcats

3/26/20 9:08pm

RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:09pm

RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being

coolcats

3/26/20 9:18pm

Good reply here.

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 9:00pm

Also, the current numbers coming in don’t reflect the effect of the measures

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:02pm

He’s not looking at “a couple of days.” He’s looking forward.

3/26/20 9:11pm

Based on numbers not adding up as he predicted.

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:12pm

This is 100% fiction.

3/26/20 9:18pm

How embarrassing for him to be that wrong.

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:22pm

Exactly.

Benfica1

3/26/20 9:11pm

lol. I have no dog in the fight. I think there is a very real chance we are overreacting. But a

Clark Addison

3/26/20 9:24pm

Cool.

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 9:26pm

So, as I suspected, you have nothing intelligent to say. Or worse, nothing interesting. 🙁

Clark Addison

3/26/20 9:31pm

No I just don’t care to argue.

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 9:33pm

My condolences to your wife...

3/26/20 10:45pm

Thank you.

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 10:58pm

It's a good reply because what the expert is saying makes no sense.

HONOMO

3/26/20 10:55pm

Dumb reply, actually. Go back and read his original paper, and you’ll see that

chilango

3/26/20 10:24pm

UK just barely started serious suppression.

HONOMO

3/26/20 10:56pm

Doesn’t matter. You can model it before it even begins. In fact, he did model

chilango

3/26/20 11:08pm

It seems like a convenient cop out to me

HONOMO

3/26/20 11:21pm

Let me use an example. Let’s say I’m trying to model someone’s weight loss

chilango

3/26/20 11:44pm

I think you missed some key words in my post b/c your example is irrelevant

HONOMO

3/27/20 12:11am

The best case scenario by following the strict guidelines was a million US deaths

JohnnyComeLately

3/27/20 12:29am

But if you read the study, the best-case scenario he modeled was modest and

chilango

3/27/20 12:40am

I literally linked and screenshot the New York Times article that most of us are basing our opinion on.

JohnnyComeLately

3/27/20 12:44am

Ok, what I see is an opinion piece in which the writer quotes an offhand remark

chilango

3/27/20 12:57am

An offhand remark where he specifically stated the best case scenario is 1.1 million US deaths?

JohnnyComeLately

3/27/20 9:51am

1.1 million was the projection in the original analysis.....

The Shazad

3/27/20 5:46am

Oh, come on. It is being "walked back". When you make sensational predictions

BeardedSpock

3/26/20 9:05pm

No, it is not. Absolutely it is not.

3/26/20 9:10pm

He's still guessing. His guesses are more educated than the average person's

BeardedSpock

3/26/20 9:14pm

Yes, it is. Absolutely it is.

Benfica1

3/26/20 9:16pm

Seems like he’s deliberately making the report unfalsifiable

hansel

3/26/20 9:18pm

The panic peddling liberals always had the out in their back pocket

bluelands

3/26/20 9:23pm

I suppose we could do nothing and count the bodies.

3/26/20 9:25pm

The report said we needed to keep the measures up until a vaccine. Is there a

Harbinger

3/26/20 9:18pm

False. Dude was wrong. I would eviscerate this guy in a courtroom.

shammy

3/26/20 9:19pm

I bet you could run a 4.4 40 too.

3/26/20 9:22pm

Are you married to his sister or something?

Benfica1

3/26/20 9:24pm

I’m predicting I can run a 4.4, but then I’ll revise it after I hit 4.4 seconds

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:26pm

That was cute. I’ll credit you that.

3/26/20 9:32pm

No, 5.9. but I’m excellent in the courtroom.

shammy

3/26/20 9:26pm

Remind me not to hire you as my lawyer. You would be crushed in the courtroom,

chilango

3/26/20 9:40pm

This is a desperate and angst filled post.

CoachSpeak

3/27/20 9:04am

they published another study today THAT SAID THE SAME THING

The Shazad

3/26/20 9:27pm

Yes, I get all the caveats and conditions and "to be sures". But that's not

BeardedSpock

3/26/20 9:38pm

like I said, the new publication today has the same projections

The Shazad

3/26/20 9:47pm

To say he’s using the same assumptions is flat out false.

Bostonblue

3/26/20 10:49pm

yes, it went up and made the projections go up a little too

The Shazad

3/26/20 10:56pm

He's changing his assumptions based on something he's seen. Yet, he won't

Bostonblue

3/27/20 9:25am

he's provided his code to a couple organizations so they can clean it up

The Shazad

3/27/20 9:30am

haha. Okay.

Bostonblue

3/27/20 9:32am

you think he didn't? what is the concern here?

The Shazad

3/27/20 9:39am

I've spoken with several doctors, including infectious disease experts, and they

Bostonblue

3/27/20 9:47am

I don't think it's scripture - it's probably wrong

The Shazad

3/27/20 10:05am

I agree the headlines got it wrong. But at a minimum, I still don't understand

Bostonblue

3/27/20 10:09am

I think it's in part...

The Shazad

3/27/20 10:22am

Cut them some slack. Their real expertise is predicting global warming...

Jasbo

3/26/20 9:56pm

Except nobody is doing nothing so why bother with that stat

BYU '80

3/26/20 10:28pm

Fake News

chilango

3/26/20 9:32pm

Fox News said so

coolcats

3/26/20 9:40pm

Is that why so many here believe this demonstrably false nonsense? I didn’t

chilango

3/26/20 9:42pm

it became a thing in conservative media today

The Shazad

3/26/20 9:45pm

Yes, that dastardly "conservative media", they made it up out of whole cloth

BeardedSpock

3/26/20 10:03pm

The part about his model being wrong and changing 500k to 20k deaths was wrong.

chilango

3/26/20 10:11pm

read that article then read some of the hot takes on it today

The Shazad

3/26/20 10:18pm

He should reject his model. His pride won’t let him

BYU '80

3/26/20 10:30pm

Extreme cases get modeled all the time. I just did one at work this week, which

chilango

3/26/20 10:34pm

the paper admits that it is likely that people's behavior would change

The Shazad

3/26/20 10:38pm

That number not being relevant is a fact

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:06am

Here is the critical piece you are missing.

3/26/20 10:26pm

So it’s the msm fault for pushing the extreme numbers as likely outcomes

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:08am

It's not being walked back, it's being proved wrong. Completely.

Harbinger

3/26/20 9:15pm

Of course.... LOL. I think we ALL saw that excuse coming.

kotacoug

3/26/20 9:27pm

The “excuse”? Meaning, actually trying to stop the spread of the disease?

3/26/20 9:31pm

Imperial College will go down in infamy as the biggest catastrophic load of crap

kotacoug

3/26/20 9:30pm

I honestly can't figure out why it became the gold standard when there were so

777

3/26/20 10:00pm

The media. Enemy of the people

3/26/20 11:29pm

No, the only people who will think this are those who don’t understand modeling,

chilango

3/26/20 10:18pm

If the liberal press has anything to do with it I’m sure he will. We’ll

kotacoug

3/26/20 10:54pm

This has nothing to do with liberal or conservative. It has to do with math,

chilango

3/26/20 10:57pm

Yes the math was spot on. All the numbers were gross miscalculations and

kotacoug

3/26/20 11:18pm

No, you’re just making stuff up. That’s not what happened, nor is it how

chilango

3/26/20 11:47pm

If only we were all as gifted as you

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:09am

It’s a waste of time. People believe what they want.

Josef K

3/26/20 10:13pm

As do you on any number of topics

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:11am

I want to believe that the US will be roaring back to work by Easter.

Josef K

3/27/20 2:30am

That looks like the Miriam-Webster's definition of "Walked back" to me

DeekLyfter

3/26/20 10:19pm

Which part?

3/26/20 10:30pm

The whole statement. You can tell from the part he says that it isn't a walk

DeekLyfter

3/26/20 10:32pm

Why speak about the projection at all

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:13am

Because people think he is walking back the original, which is 100% false.

3/27/20 7:50am

But things have already been done so it’s a worthless projection at this point

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:11am

He should be fired until everyone who has lost their job is re-employed.

Unibro

3/27/20 6:57am

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