Also, I didn't use the Harvard study when I did my estimation. To be honest, calories burned is really tricky, as there are a bunch of other things that go into it besides just your actual weight. Body composition makes a difference. If you have more fat than muscle you will burn less calories than another person of the same weight that has more muscle. And a bunch of other things go into it too, for example, if you are on a low-calorie diet for a long time your body could adjust so that your organs use energy more efficiently, burning less calories in order to preserve fat as fat plays an important role, and your body wants to hang on to it. So you're always going to get an imperfect estimation when trying to predict actual calories burned. Calories in is easy peasy. So just eat less than your body requires and you are good to go.