In money supply, disruption in supply due to supply chain disruption and spikes in construction material cost (which have already shown can and will correct sharply). Then combine this with the Covid demand shifts that has caused a rapid influx of demand in “recreational” markets as well as record low interest rates (also not sustainable without consequence).

The demand has entered into these markets too quickly for supply to catch up… with excess land and markets with low barriers to entry, new supply will and are entering at record rates (being developed at price targets assuming this run rate in pricing continues)…. At some point these supply/demand charts will cross and there should be a pretty good correction in these markets….

Very different situation from 2008, but the basic laws of economics still apply to both…I’ve been in the real estate business a long time all over the country, and the best hedge to real estate cycles are the combo of rising demand with barriers to new supply…in every bubble, it’s the same comments… “this time is different though.” Yet the cyclical trend has stayed in tact since the beginning