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May 16, 2023
8:17:01am
krindorr Truly Addicted User
With those 4 factors weighted according to general importance

That said, I don't think it's accurate to weight all 4 of those factors the same; the actual TV viewership matters a LOT more than how well they play on the field.

So if I weight it instead at 40% TV viewership, 25% market, 20% attendance, 15% on-field success, it changes the order slightly, but probably gives a better result.

The results with this weighting are:

  1. Ohio St 85.61 (Big 10)
  2. Alabama 80.90 (SEC)
  3. Michigan 77.97 (Big 10)
  4. Georgia 74.75 (SEC)
  5. Notre Dame 66.53 (ACC/Independent)
  6. LSU 66.51 (SEC)
  7. Penn St 65.20 (B1G)
  8. Clemson 65.02 (ACC)
  9. Texas A&M 61.61 (SEC)
  10. Auburn 59.90 (SEC)
  11. Texas 59.80 (SEC)
  12. Oklahoma 58.68 (SEC)
  13. Florida 58.01 (SEC)
  14. USC 56.18 (B1G
  15. Tennessee 55.95 (SEC)
  16. Michigan St 55.35 (B1G)
  17. Wisconsin 54.38 (B1G)
    SEC Average 52.21
    B1G Average 49.26
          note the size of the gap here....
  18. Nebraska 46.30 (B1G)
  19. UCLA 45.92 (B1G)
  20. Oregon 45.13 (PAC)
  21. Washington 44.91 (PAC)
  22. South Carolina 44.62 (SEC)
  23. TCU 44.03 (XII)
  24. Iowa 43.11 (B1G)
  25. Florida St 42.96 (ACC)
  26. Oklahoma St 42.09 (XII)
  27. Miami 42.06 (ACC)
  28. Rutgers 41.70 (B1G)
  29. Ole Miss 41.39 (SEC)
  30. Arkansas 41.25 (SEC)
  31. Army 40.049 (G5)
  32. Kentucky 40.04 (SEC)
  33. Baylor 39.70 (XII)
  34. Stanford 39.66 (PAC)
  35. Navy 39.62 (G5) 
  36. Northwestern 39.22 (B1G)
    ACC Average (with Notre Dame) 38.87
  37. Pitt 38.23 (ACC)
  38. Minnesota 37.95 (B1G)
  39. Indiana 37.55 (B1G)
  40. Utah 37.55 (PAC)
  41. North Carolina 37.48 (ACC)
  42. Maryland 37.47 (B1G)
  43. West Virginia 37.39 (XII)
    ACC Average (no Notre Dame) 36.90
  44. NC State 36.33 (ACC)
  45. Virginia Tech 36.32 (ACC)
  46. Purdue 36.29 (B1G)
  47. Mississippi St 36.24 (SEC)
  48. UCF 35.85 (XII)
  49. Louisville 35.32 (ACC)
  50. Cal 35.01 (PAC)
    PAC Average 34.95
    Big 12 Average 34.93
  51. BYU 34.80 (XII)
  52. Cincinnati 34.67 (XII)
  53. Arizona St 34.45 (PAC)
  54. Boston College 34.12 (ACC)
  55. Georgia Tech 34.04 (ACC)
  56. Kansas St 33.98 (XII)
  57. Iowa St 33.84 (XII)
    PAC Average (w/ SDSU, SMU) 33.63
  58. Missouri 32.75 (SEC)
    PAC Average (w/o Oregon, Washington) 32.43
  59. Colorado 31.83 (PAC)
  60. Houston 31.56 (XII)
    PAC Average (w SDSU, SMU and w/o Oregon, Washington) 31.36
  61. San Diego St 30.24 (G5)
  62. Wake Forest 29.69 (ACC)
  63. Syracuse 29.59 (ACC)
  64. Virginia 27.98 (ACC)
  65. Illinois 27.93 (B1G)
  66. Washington St 27.61 (PAC)
  67. USF 27.58 (G5)
  68. Arizona 27.51 (PAC)
  69. Texas Tech 27.46 (XII)
  70. Duke 27.39 (ACC)
  71. Fresno St 26.17 (G5)
  72. Oregon St 25.86 (PAC)
  73. SMU 23.85 (G5)
  74. Kansas 23.81 (XII)
  75. Memphis 23.40 (G5)
  76. Vanderbilt 23.03 (SEC)
  77. Boise St 20.58 (G5)
  78. UTSA 19.62 (G5)
  79. Tulane 17.94 (G5)
  80. UNLV 14.33 (G5)

A few takeaways

  • The biggest changes as a result of this include
    • Clemson drops from #5 to #8
    • Army flies up the rankings from #48 to #31 (see note on Army/Navy below) - not surprising since they're basically the same market as Rutgers
    • Indiana moves up from #47 to #41
    • Utah moves down from #35 to #40
    • NC State drops from #39 to #44
    • BYU drops from #44 to #51 (remember though that this has extra weight on viewership, where BYU is expected to improve now in the Big 12)
    • Kansas St drops from #51 to #56
    • Fresno St drops from #64 to #71
    • Maryland, Purdue, Illinois, Washington St, USF and SMU all move up 4 spots

  • Teams that would be additive for various conference include
    • To the SEC or B1G: Clemson and Notre Dame, though Washington, Oregon, TCU, Florida St, Oklahoma St and Miami are close and all score above the score of Rutgers
    • To the ACC (from the PAC): Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Utah
    • To the ACC (from the Big 12): TCU, Oklahoma St, Baylor, West Virginia
    • To the Big 12 (from the PAC): Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Utah, Cal (behold the power of a huge market)
    • To the Big 12 (from the ACC): Clemson, Florida St, Miami, Pitt, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech, Louisville
    • To the PAC (from G5): Nobody (see below comments on Army/Navy)

  • Big 12 Teams that WOULD have been additive to the PAC even when they still had USC/UCLA: TCU, Oklahoma St, Baylor.  Best guess is that TCU, Baylor were out for religious reasons and Oklahoma St for academic reasons, but the PAC definitely screwed up by not taking those teams when they could (also worth noting that USC/UCLA were actively preventing it)

  • Team that surprise with how high/low they end up
    • Army/Navy: Really these schools basically end up benefitting from the Army/Navy game drawing MASSIVE ratings (nearly as many people watch that game as watch BYU all season) and also the Navy/ND game.  They also have large markets (Baltimore/DC and New York).  But frankly, they don't scale well, so their score here should be taken with a grain of salt
    • UCF (#48), BYU (#51), Cincinnati (#52), and Houston (#60) should get a boost from moving into a P5 conference.  This obviously isn't yet reflected in the data
    • North Carolina (#41), Virginia Tech (#45), and Virginia (#64) are all commonly seen as expansion targets for the SEC or B1G...but frankly haven't shown that well in their current conferences and would require a leap of faith that they'll be a different program than they have been
krindorr
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krindorr
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krindorr Truly Addicted User
5/16/23 8:15am

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