I thought about dropping the value... but we've seen market size drive expansion a fair amount

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May 16, 2023
8:42:48am

krindorr Truly Addicted User

I thought about dropping the value... but we've seen market size drive expansion a fair amount

Rutgers is the obvious example... but not the only one.

Maryland was a market play as well. And UCLA is a fine team... but their LA market is the biggest reason why they got a B1G invite. And San Diego St is now considered the clear top G5 option - mostly because of market.

I don't think it SHOULD be that high... but it's been shown to be a relatively important factor. Certainly more so than on-field performance or game attendance. Note that game attendance will generally scale with student population so long as the student base is engaged... and those students are the ones who eventually become alumni anyway.

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krindorr

Bio page: krindorr
Joined: Oct 5, 2020
Last login: Jun 11, 2024
Total posts: 18,154 (112 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

A (loose) ranking of teams by realignment value

krindorr Truly Addicted User

5/16/23 8:15am

With all 4 categories weighted equally

krindorr

5/16/23 8:16am

Are you counting viewership from CCG and NY6 games?

jvquarterback

5/16/23 1:09pm

Regular season games only - no CCG or bowls or playoffs

krindorr

5/16/23 1:55pm

With those 4 factors weighted according to general importance

krindorr

5/16/23 8:17am

Great data. Thanks! TCU and Cal are examples of weird results that don’t

DirtyWater

5/16/23 8:23am

Yup, this is purely surface data so serves more as a launching point

krindorr

5/16/23 8:26am

Very interesting data. Florida state is an interesting outlier here, but likely

nolecoug

5/16/23 8:38am

Yeah, market size is WAY overweighted here, and those are good examples why. UH

Mitty

5/16/23 1:12pm

Tending to agree, here's a different weighting

krindorr

5/16/23 1:58pm

Thanks for putting together! Should market size be given 25%? It seems to skew

5/16/23 8:28am

I agree with this. Weighting market size 25% or more seems too high.

Short_Changed

5/16/23 8:31am

If the market completely ignores the school doesn't really make sense to use it

PokeMAN

5/16/23 8:36am

attendance is a bigger factor than market size.

LeonMarek

5/16/23 8:50am

Big10 heavily favors this metric.

Hill4Heisman

5/16/23 9:45am

I thought about dropping the value... but we've seen market size drive expansion a fair amount

krindorr

5/16/23 8:42am

Great Stuff! Really appreciate the time, effort and thinking on this!

Captain Stubing

5/16/23 8:59am

If you want a different weighting of those 4 factors, I can put it together in just a minute or two

krindorr

5/16/23 8:58am

What time frame are you looking at for ratings, OFS and attendance?

Captain Stubing

5/16/23 9:22am

Last decade... Going back further would have advantages and disadvantages

krindorr

5/16/23 9:28am

Here’s the weighting I’d use:

Short_Changed

5/16/23 11:58am

Results by that weighting

krindorr

5/16/23 12:39pm

This feels about right. Rutgers went way down.

Short_Changed

5/16/23 12:53pm

Agreed, maybe a little harsh but in the right range

krindorr

5/16/23 1:15pm

One big problem with that weighting:

5/16/23 1:34pm

Can you include basketball so that Utah drops?

thewaterboy

5/16/23 8:31am

Well, including basketball would give you a better sense of each

5/16/23 8:39am

Unfortunately I think that for most schools, basketball isn't even a factor

krindorr

5/16/23 8:54am

Rutgers at #28 kind of invalidates this approach in my mind

Hill4Heisman

5/16/23 9:44am

Your values for BYU and Utah aren't close to ESPN's internal value rankings

slatecoug

5/16/23 1:42pm

BTW, your numbers don't matchup with BYU being worth an extra $4-$5Mil/school

slatecoug

5/16/23 1:43pm

See my comments here

krindorr

5/16/23 1:54pm

I listened to the the interview. $2.5M is not much of a "Home Run" shot.

slatecoug

5/16/23 4:09pm

BTW, I saw some ESPN internal numbers a few years ago. They had BYU A LOT higher

slatecoug

5/16/23 4:11pm

Again, like I said, this is a general rough estimate. I fully expect BYu to be higher than this

krindorr

5/16/23 8:40pm

The guy that writes for SBJ, and made the comment never walked it back.

slatecoug

5/16/23 10:39pm

BYU will never get a fair ranking in these because

cougforever

5/16/23 8:50am

Yeah, honestly, I'd say BYU is one of the outliers here and wouldn't focus on them as much

krindorr

5/16/23 9:46am

Interesting info, as always. Personally, I think it's overly simplistic & prone

BamaCoug

5/16/23 9:13am

100% it's a simple back-of-the envelope calculation, useful as a starting point. But I don't see importance of # alumni

krindorr

5/16/23 9:26am

The Big Ten, in particular, has stated alumni size factors into their criteria

5/16/23 9:43am

Alumni and enrollment are huge factors. They may not be watching the games much

BamaCoug

5/16/23 10:54am

And yes, I mentioned a few times that Army/Navy are outliers based on some weird factors and should likely be ignored

krindorr

5/16/23 9:49am

IMO, TV ratings shouldn't be so much about a set number but more about how teams perform against the

ManicBlue

5/16/23 10:28am

All valid points, though FWIW this TV viewership metric does consider and ding teams for being televised less often

krindorr

5/16/23 10:35am

From your above post, you only wrote "For Viewership, this was 2M in rated games." so I assumed it was for a

ManicBlue

5/16/23 10:46am

Yeah, that was my fault; bad wording on my part - I see it now

krindorr

5/16/23 11:04am

Kindoor has no idea what he is looking at.

travelcoug

5/16/23 1:48pm

How far back to look at on-field success?

5/16/23 10:43am

Does Texas ever really “look good” though? They were great in the 60’s and 00’s…

5/16/23 10:58am

I look back a decade, but am happy to reweight and rerun it if you prefer different weightings

krindorr

5/16/23 11:00am

Do you actually share the rankings? I think a link is missing.

TailgateU

5/16/23 11:59am

They're in the comments underneath because I did it two different ways

krindorr

5/16/23 12:40pm

Where. Not seeing them.

Forzaitalia

5/16/23 12:55pm

RE: Where. Not seeing them.

ManicBlue

5/16/23 1:40pm

RE: Where. Not seeing them.

ManicBlue

5/16/23 1:41pm

How is BYU worth $4-$5Mil extra/Big 12 team based upon your numbers?

slatecoug

5/16/23 1:48pm

How come utah was seen on the pac 12 net more than any other team if they

travelcoug

5/16/23 1:51pm

Mostly because that's simply not true

krindorr

5/16/23 2:04pm

Don’t just make stuff up

travelcoug

5/16/23 3:54pm

What time frame did you look at, krindorr? I agree with your conclusion

5/16/23 4:06pm

He makes up numbers to prop up utah smh

travelcoug

5/16/23 6:04pm

As near as I can tell, he has Utah in exactly the right ranking when it comes to

5/16/23 6:21pm

Using his numbers for everyone else and putting the correct number in for Utah

travelcoug

5/16/23 6:57pm

I didn't say it was 2.5, I said that was the number BamaCoug used

krindorr

5/16/23 8:52pm

Interesting…the guy who said it came back later and said he hadn’t validated

5/16/23 9:45pm

Not wrong numbers, intentionally manipulatively wrong numbers

travelcoug

5/16/23 10:11pm

Ok, let's take it by year and see if we can't figure this out: PAC 12 Network games by year for the last decade

krindorr

5/17/23 8:27am

To be clear, I have no issue with people being negative towards Utah

krindorr

5/17/23 8:31am

You're both wrong. Utah is right in the middle for P12N appearances.

jvquarterback

5/17/23 10:44am

I just go by alphabetical order - specifically to avoid that

krindorr

5/17/23 11:22am

I would be interested in seeing this plotted against conference record or team..

BamaCoug

5/18/23 11:28pm

Here's the chart you asked for

krindorr

5/19/23 9:58am

Interesting. The biggest markets get to avoid having their teams on PAC12Net

BamaCoug

5/19/23 8:07pm

Yeah, here's the numbers with the LA Schools taken out

krindorr

5/19/23 9:51pm

Does TV viewership control for opponent?

TailgateU

5/17/23 9:37am

Unfortunately no, haven't found a great way to do that

krindorr

5/17/23 10:08am

The really hard part is that it probably needs to be recursive... And maybe infinitely recursive

krindorr

5/17/23 10:10am

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