Yeah, here's the numbers with the LA Schools taken out

May 19, 2023
9:51:24pm

krindorr Truly Addicted User

Partly because they're leaving, partly because they are just so much ahead of everyone else

That changes the linear fit obviously so (among non-LA or continuing PAC teams) the PAC Network appearances vs expectation are

Arizona -7.12
Cal -5.61
Stanford -5.45
Arizona St -4.40
Washington +0.44
Utah +0.57
Oregon + 2.49
Colorado +5.30
Oregon St +6.62
Washington St +7.22

So (ignoring LA schools) it breaks into 3 groups

Huge, top markets (Arizona and SF Bay schools)
Smaller markets but engaged fanbases (Washington, Utah, Oregon)
Non-involved fans outside huge markets (Colorado, Oregon St, Washington St)

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krindorr

Bio page: krindorr
Joined: Oct 5, 2020
Last login: Jun 11, 2024
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Messages

Author

Time

A (loose) ranking of teams by realignment value

krindorr Truly Addicted User

5/16/23 8:15am

With all 4 categories weighted equally

krindorr

5/16/23 8:16am

Are you counting viewership from CCG and NY6 games?

jvquarterback

5/16/23 1:09pm

Regular season games only - no CCG or bowls or playoffs

krindorr

5/16/23 1:55pm

With those 4 factors weighted according to general importance

krindorr

5/16/23 8:17am

Great data. Thanks! TCU and Cal are examples of weird results that don’t

DirtyWater

5/16/23 8:23am

Yup, this is purely surface data so serves more as a launching point

krindorr

5/16/23 8:26am

Very interesting data. Florida state is an interesting outlier here, but likely

nolecoug

5/16/23 8:38am

Yeah, market size is WAY overweighted here, and those are good examples why. UH

Mitty

5/16/23 1:12pm

Tending to agree, here's a different weighting

krindorr

5/16/23 1:58pm

Thanks for putting together! Should market size be given 25%? It seems to skew

moknowssports

5/16/23 8:28am

I agree with this. Weighting market size 25% or more seems too high.

Short_Changed

5/16/23 8:31am

If the market completely ignores the school doesn't really make sense to use it

PokeMAN

5/16/23 8:36am

attendance is a bigger factor than market size.

LeonMarek

5/16/23 8:50am

Big10 heavily favors this metric.

Hill4Heisman

5/16/23 9:45am

I thought about dropping the value... but we've seen market size drive expansion a fair amount

krindorr

5/16/23 8:42am

Great Stuff! Really appreciate the time, effort and thinking on this!

Captain Stubing

5/16/23 8:59am

If you want a different weighting of those 4 factors, I can put it together in just a minute or two

krindorr

5/16/23 8:58am

What time frame are you looking at for ratings, OFS and attendance?

Captain Stubing

5/16/23 9:22am

Last decade... Going back further would have advantages and disadvantages

krindorr

5/16/23 9:28am

Here’s the weighting I’d use:

Short_Changed

5/16/23 11:58am

Results by that weighting

krindorr

5/16/23 12:39pm

This feels about right. Rutgers went way down.

Short_Changed

5/16/23 12:53pm

Agreed, maybe a little harsh but in the right range

krindorr

5/16/23 1:15pm

One big problem with that weighting:

moknowssports

5/16/23 1:34pm

Can you include basketball so that Utah drops?

thewaterboy

5/16/23 8:31am

Well, including basketball would give you a better sense of each

moknowssports

5/16/23 8:39am

Unfortunately I think that for most schools, basketball isn't even a factor

krindorr

5/16/23 8:54am

Rutgers at #28 kind of invalidates this approach in my mind

Hill4Heisman

5/16/23 9:44am

Your values for BYU and Utah aren't close to ESPN's internal value rankings

slatecoug

5/16/23 1:42pm

BTW, your numbers don't matchup with BYU being worth an extra $4-$5Mil/school

slatecoug

5/16/23 1:43pm

See my comments here

krindorr

5/16/23 1:54pm

I listened to the the interview. $2.5M is not much of a "Home Run" shot.

slatecoug

5/16/23 4:09pm

BTW, I saw some ESPN internal numbers a few years ago. They had BYU A LOT higher

slatecoug

5/16/23 4:11pm

Again, like I said, this is a general rough estimate. I fully expect BYu to be higher than this

krindorr

5/16/23 8:40pm

The guy that writes for SBJ, and made the comment never walked it back.

slatecoug

5/16/23 10:39pm

BYU will never get a fair ranking in these because

cougforever

5/16/23 8:50am

Yeah, honestly, I'd say BYU is one of the outliers here and wouldn't focus on them as much

krindorr

5/16/23 9:46am

Interesting info, as always. Personally, I think it's overly simplistic & prone

BamaCoug

5/16/23 9:13am

100% it's a simple back-of-the envelope calculation, useful as a starting point. But I don't see importance of # alumni

krindorr

5/16/23 9:26am

The Big Ten, in particular, has stated alumni size factors into their criteria

moknowssports

5/16/23 9:43am

Alumni and enrollment are huge factors. They may not be watching the games much

BamaCoug

5/16/23 10:54am

And yes, I mentioned a few times that Army/Navy are outliers based on some weird factors and should likely be ignored

krindorr

5/16/23 9:49am

IMO, TV ratings shouldn't be so much about a set number but more about how teams perform against the

ManicBlue

5/16/23 10:28am

All valid points, though FWIW this TV viewership metric does consider and ding teams for being televised less often

krindorr

5/16/23 10:35am

From your above post, you only wrote "For Viewership, this was 2M in rated games." so I assumed it was for a

ManicBlue

5/16/23 10:46am

Yeah, that was my fault; bad wording on my part - I see it now

krindorr

5/16/23 11:04am

Kindoor has no idea what he is looking at.

travelcoug

5/16/23 1:48pm

How far back to look at on-field success?

akbarishiwatsu

5/16/23 10:43am

Does Texas ever really “look good” though? They were great in the 60’s and 00’s…

moknowssports

5/16/23 10:58am

I look back a decade, but am happy to reweight and rerun it if you prefer different weightings

krindorr

5/16/23 11:00am

Do you actually share the rankings? I think a link is missing.

TailgateU

5/16/23 11:59am

They're in the comments underneath because I did it two different ways

krindorr

5/16/23 12:40pm

Where. Not seeing them.

Forzaitalia

5/16/23 12:55pm

RE: Where. Not seeing them.

ManicBlue

5/16/23 1:40pm

RE: Where. Not seeing them.

ManicBlue

5/16/23 1:41pm

How is BYU worth $4-$5Mil extra/Big 12 team based upon your numbers?

slatecoug

5/16/23 1:48pm

How come utah was seen on the pac 12 net more than any other team if they

travelcoug

5/16/23 1:51pm

Mostly because that's simply not true

krindorr

5/16/23 2:04pm

Don’t just make stuff up

travelcoug

5/16/23 3:54pm

What time frame did you look at, krindorr? I agree with your conclusion

moknowssports

5/16/23 4:06pm

He makes up numbers to prop up utah smh

travelcoug

5/16/23 6:04pm

As near as I can tell, he has Utah in exactly the right ranking when it comes to

moknowssports

5/16/23 6:21pm

Using his numbers for everyone else and putting the correct number in for Utah

travelcoug

5/16/23 6:57pm

I didn't say it was 2.5, I said that was the number BamaCoug used

krindorr

5/16/23 8:52pm

Interesting…the guy who said it came back later and said he hadn’t validated

moknowssports

5/16/23 9:45pm

Not wrong numbers, intentionally manipulatively wrong numbers

travelcoug

5/16/23 10:11pm

Ok, let's take it by year and see if we can't figure this out: PAC 12 Network games by year for the last decade

krindorr

5/17/23 8:27am

To be clear, I have no issue with people being negative towards Utah

krindorr

5/17/23 8:31am

You're both wrong. Utah is right in the middle for P12N appearances.

jvquarterback

5/17/23 10:44am

I just go by alphabetical order - specifically to avoid that

krindorr

5/17/23 11:22am

I would be interested in seeing this plotted against conference record or team..

BamaCoug

5/18/23 11:28pm

Here's the chart you asked for

krindorr

5/19/23 9:58am

Interesting. The biggest markets get to avoid having their teams on PAC12Net

BamaCoug

5/19/23 8:07pm

Yeah, here's the numbers with the LA Schools taken out

krindorr

5/19/23 9:51pm

Does TV viewership control for opponent?

TailgateU

5/17/23 9:37am

Unfortunately no, haven't found a great way to do that

krindorr

5/17/23 10:08am

The really hard part is that it probably needs to be recursive... And maybe infinitely recursive

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