If it's a missionary tool used to spur interest in the church among non-members, why does it matter where the already-baptized members are? Plenty of non-LDS college sports fans in the US today just like there was in the 80s.
#4 seems like an overreaction to one bad year. But if #3 is true and if #4 is at least partially true your friend may be right, but not within 5 years. Maybe 10, at the very least, probably more.