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Sep 22, 2021
1:58
:19
pm
miggida
Walk-on
or ask Texas...wait...
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miggida
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miggida
Joined
Mar 11, 2015
Last login
May 28, 2024
Total posts
72 (0 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Four-star blah blah blah
spoxjox
9/22/21 8:58am
Yes and significantly more likely to play in the NFL
D.T. Survivor
9/22/21 8:59am
How many stars were Zach Wilson, and how many stars would Young, McMahon, Detmer
cougfromcali
9/22/21 11:11am
You are always going to have outliers and players that are late bloomers
Yunit
9/22/21 11:32am
Not really accurate. Most successful NFL players are not 4 or 5 star recruits..
cougfromcali
9/22/21 7:34pm
This is ridiculous on so many levels
stansburycoug
9/22/21 9:00pm
Wait, so you think the NFL doesn't start more 5 stars because they're so rare?
cougfromcali
9/22/21 11:04pm
Zach Wilson was a top 1000 HS recruit nationally, not some nobody
krindorr
9/22/21 3:43pm
Yeah, not nobody, but not a 5 or even a 4 star recruit, right? Yet a 1st round..
cougfromcali
9/22/21 5:16pm
You're arguing a straw man
krindorr
9/22/21 5:27pm
Haha, I don't think you know what "straw man" means, man. But check this out...
cougfromcali
9/22/21 7:31pm
You are using ridiculous factors to fit your narrative. We are not saying
Yunit
9/23/21 12:05am
People want to act like Florida High Schools produce good recruits, but most college & NFL players are from other states
krindorr
9/23/21 7:28am
That's logic.
spoxjox
9/23/21 8:33am
Yes
SCcoug
9/22/21 8:59am
Yes
DKN
9/22/21 9:00am
Ask Alabama.
BoiseBlue
9/22/21 9:00am
Finding the freak of the freaks in the country isn't all that hard
SinkingQuffa
9/22/21 9:05am
or ask Texas...wait...
miggida
9/22/21 1:58pm
I have no idea, but when I coach
Choke
9/22/21 9:01am
Is take the hungry 4 star any day.
Brigham
9/22/21 9:01am
Teaching grit at an early age.
Soy Celeste
9/22/21 1:03pm
why not take the 4-star and simply stop feeding him? 🙂
Hill4Heisman
9/22/21 1:29pm
4 star means people have known about you longer and lots of them like you
DeekLyfter
9/22/21 9:01am
Yes. There will be outliers, but overall it is accurate.
Brigham
9/22/21 9:01am
This. Some people love to point to situations where a one- or no-star kid turns
Tricky
9/22/21 10:44am
Plus, people's minds inherently don't deal well with statistics, especially with large, disparate numbers
krindorr
9/22/21 1:00pm
Aren't the ratings simply based off of how many offers kids get? So isn't it
Cougar TD
9/22/21 9:01am
Statistically yes in a large sample size, but on an individual basis it can
inertiaman
9/22/21 9:02am
This - and recruiting rankings, esp for the top 10, roughly align with
COUGND
9/22/21 9:05am
It's not a perfect metric, but it's pretty darn reliable.
Marc Spector
9/22/21 9:10am
Most, not all, but most of the top recruited athletes in the country do end up being top picks in the NFL draft...
Coug
9/22/21 9:11am
Getting the right coach is more important, but recruiting is #2
CaliWG
9/22/21 9:12am
Star ratings inarguably matter
nova_coug_fan
9/22/21 9:23am
To help with numbers:
FabLabCougar
9/22/21 11:51am
It’d be interesting to see the same data after 5 years in the league
BYU'01
9/22/21 12:01pm
Star ratings matter to fans like us
scott715
9/22/21 12:03pm
It's kinda like valuing your house based on Zillow. Ballpark, but not 100%
Pangare
9/22/21 9:42am
You can't take isolated instances of a 2 star walk-on making an NFL roster
LifeLongLakerFan
9/22/21 9:52am
The ranking system is all about being in the right place at
AltTabbins
9/22/21 10:08am
Ask any team that's won a NC lately
ReggaeCoug
9/22/21 10:09am
Isn't this a "default" problem-- all 4* are 4* for a reason, but 2* is default.
jkccoug
9/22/21 10:13am
Yes! Unless they go to BYU.
yesitisnt
9/22/21 10:21am
61% of 5* are drafted, 23% of 4*, 5.1% of 3*, and 0.5% of 2 star or lower
krindorr
9/22/21 10:21am
Excellent post.
inertiaman
9/22/21 10:26am
This post should be required reading for all college football fans
Hazzard
9/22/21 10:39am
I have seen the statistical analysis performed 3-4 times over the past 20 years
g$
9/22/21 11:20am
Fair enough- but there were only 34 5* recruits for 2021. So, that is pretty rarified air.
PJMort
9/22/21 11:40am
Star rankings have evolved a bit over the years, but 5* grades are supposed to
g$
9/22/21 11:47am
I don't think it's impressive at all
Coop
9/22/21 12:01pm
If you look at the article I linked the average 5* ends up drafted in the 2nd round
krindorr
9/22/21 1:06pm
You need to post this as a post not a reply. All CB needs to read it.
macdizzle
9/22/21 12:40pm
Done. Thanks for the suggestion
krindorr
9/22/21 3:22pm
Good data. Surprised it's only 73%.
Hill4Heisman
9/22/21 1:30pm
For BYU (2008-2017 classes) those numbers are 5*: N/A, 4*: 23.1%, 3*: 1.5%, 2*/unrated: 4.2%
krindorr
9/22/21 2:43pm
The stars mostly rate athletic ability. Heart/Grit matter a lot too. The trick
runnincoug
9/22/21 10:31am
4*+ athletes hit at a very high rate
CougarCanuck76
9/22/21 10:51am
Huge correlation between 4 and 5 stars and the NFL
stansburycoug
9/22/21 10:53am
I think it largely depends on the coaches and the program. Some will get a recruit and totally miss the botch
SwimmingWithSharks
9/22/21 10:58am
BYU seems to outperform their recruiting rank on the field. Does BYU have more
thewaterboy
9/22/21 10:59am
Honestly, hard to say thus far. Still early in Sitake's tenure, but can look at how Utah did over the last decade
krindorr
9/22/21 11:05am
If you look at the programs that consistently outperform their recruiting rank
g$
9/22/21 11:29am
Some of it is legit, some of it is not.
Cougzilla
9/22/21 11:00am
Stars matter. A player who is ranked 4* by the time he is a junior is already
Iron Coug
9/22/21 11:42am
Agree. Despite its flaws, a 4 star recruit is still a desireable get. If you can
Forzaitalia
9/22/21 11:49am
Always exceptions but for the most part it matters.
Blue for Life
9/22/21 11:47am
They’re reliable when BYU gets one, but garbage if we only get 2 and 3
macdizzle
9/22/21 11:58am
Who are BYU's 5* over the past five years?
TheMole
9/22/21 12:27pm
No one.
Soupie
9/22/21 12:34pm
Here's a complete list of the top recruits for BYU all time per 247
Marc Spector
9/22/21 12:40pm
Seems like a lot of our highly rated guys did not pan out.
machete
9/22/21 1:13pm
Here's a list of BYU recruits in the last decade that were ranked as top 1000 HS recruits
krindorr
9/22/21 3:45pm
We've had some good ones in the past decade. But man that top 10 is kinda sad
machete
9/22/21 3:53pm
A big part of that is that the modern rating system didn't start until 2001 and the first few years were a bit squirrely
krindorr
9/22/21 4:03pm
That was cool and interesting. Thanks for the link.
TheMole
9/22/21 1:50pm
It's not.
FT487
9/22/21 12:28pm
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