Star ratings inarguably matter

Sign up, and you'll be able to vote in polls. Sign up

Report problem with this ad

Sep 22, 2021
9:23:35am

nova_coug_fan Redshirt Freshman

Star ratings inarguably matter

Not a perfect science, but it would be foolish to think that talent evaluators are so bad that star ratings are basically a crapshoot. The correlation between recruiting classes and performance on the field seems pretty clear. 247 Sports actually did a study on this and looked at the likelihood of being drafted by star rating:

2016/17 Class Averages – 247Sports Composite

Five-star: 30 (62.3%)
Four-star: 311 (23.5%)
Three-star: 1,831 (6%)
Two-Star: 1,949 (1.6%)

Seems like a pretty strong correlation to me.

2020 NFL Draft: The 'stars don't matter' narrative gets crushed

You hear it every year: Stars don't matter. But the NFL Draft (like it does every year) showed that sentiment to be incorrect.

https://247sports.com/Article/NFL-Draft-recruiting-rankings-why-recruiting-matters-college-football-146512831/

Report problem with this ad

nova_coug_fan

Bio page: nova_coug_fan
Joined: Jan 5, 2013
Last login: May 6, 2024
Total posts: 1,226 (2 FO)

Report problem with this ad

Messages

Author

Time

Four-star blah blah blah

spoxjox

9/22/21 8:58am

Yes and significantly more likely to play in the NFL

9/22/21 8:59am

How many stars were Zach Wilson, and how many stars would Young, McMahon, Detmer

9/22/21 11:11am

You are always going to have outliers and players that are late bloomers

Yunit

9/22/21 11:32am

Not really accurate. Most successful NFL players are not 4 or 5 star recruits..

9/22/21 7:34pm

This is ridiculous on so many levels

stansburycoug

9/22/21 9:00pm

Wait, so you think the NFL doesn't start more 5 stars because they're so rare?

9/22/21 11:04pm

Zach Wilson was a top 1000 HS recruit nationally, not some nobody

krindorr

9/22/21 3:43pm

Yeah, not nobody, but not a 5 or even a 4 star recruit, right? Yet a 1st round..

9/22/21 5:16pm

You're arguing a straw man

krindorr

9/22/21 5:27pm

Haha, I don't think you know what "straw man" means, man. But check this out...

9/22/21 7:31pm

You are using ridiculous factors to fit your narrative. We are not saying

Yunit

9/23/21 12:05am

People want to act like Florida High Schools produce good recruits, but most college & NFL players are from other states

krindorr

9/23/21 7:28am

That's logic.

spoxjox

9/23/21 8:33am

Yes

SCcoug

9/22/21 8:59am

Yes

DKN

9/22/21 9:00am

Ask Alabama.

BoiseBlue

9/22/21 9:00am

Finding the freak of the freaks in the country isn't all that hard

SinkingQuffa

9/22/21 9:05am

or ask Texas...wait...

miggida

9/22/21 1:58pm

I have no idea, but when I coach

Choke

9/22/21 9:01am

Is take the hungry 4 star any day.

Brigham

9/22/21 9:01am

Teaching grit at an early age.

Soy Celeste

9/22/21 1:03pm

why not take the 4-star and simply stop feeding him? 🙂

Hill4Heisman

9/22/21 1:29pm

4 star means people have known about you longer and lots of them like you

DeekLyfter

9/22/21 9:01am

Yes. There will be outliers, but overall it is accurate.

Brigham

9/22/21 9:01am

This. Some people love to point to situations where a one- or no-star kid turns

Tricky

9/22/21 10:44am

Plus, people's minds inherently don't deal well with statistics, especially with large, disparate numbers

krindorr

9/22/21 1:00pm

Aren't the ratings simply based off of how many offers kids get? So isn't it

Cougar TD

9/22/21 9:01am

Statistically yes in a large sample size, but on an individual basis it can

inertiaman

9/22/21 9:02am

This - and recruiting rankings, esp for the top 10, roughly align with

COUGND

9/22/21 9:05am

It's not a perfect metric, but it's pretty darn reliable.

9/22/21 9:10am

Most, not all, but most of the top recruited athletes in the country do end up being top picks in the NFL draft...

Coug

9/22/21 9:11am

Getting the right coach is more important, but recruiting is #2

CaliWG

9/22/21 9:12am

Star ratings inarguably matter

nova_coug_fan

9/22/21 9:23am

To help with numbers:

FabLabCougar

9/22/21 11:51am

It’d be interesting to see the same data after 5 years in the league

BYU'01

9/22/21 12:01pm

Star ratings matter to fans like us

scott715

9/22/21 12:03pm

It's kinda like valuing your house based on Zillow. Ballpark, but not 100%

Pangare

9/22/21 9:42am

You can't take isolated instances of a 2 star walk-on making an NFL roster

LifeLongLakerFan

9/22/21 9:52am

The ranking system is all about being in the right place at

AltTabbins

9/22/21 10:08am

Ask any team that's won a NC lately

ReggaeCoug

9/22/21 10:09am

Isn't this a "default" problem-- all 4* are 4* for a reason, but 2* is default.

jkccoug

9/22/21 10:13am

Yes! Unless they go to BYU.

yesitisnt

9/22/21 10:21am

61% of 5* are drafted, 23% of 4*, 5.1% of 3*, and 0.5% of 2 star or lower

krindorr

9/22/21 10:21am

Excellent post.

inertiaman

9/22/21 10:26am

This post should be required reading for all college football fans

Hazzard

9/22/21 10:39am

I have seen the statistical analysis performed 3-4 times over the past 20 years

g$

9/22/21 11:20am

Fair enough- but there were only 34 5* recruits for 2021. So, that is pretty rarified air.

PJMort

9/22/21 11:40am

Star rankings have evolved a bit over the years, but 5* grades are supposed to

g$

9/22/21 11:47am

I don't think it's impressive at all

Coop

9/22/21 12:01pm

If you look at the article I linked the average 5* ends up drafted in the 2nd round

krindorr

9/22/21 1:06pm

You need to post this as a post not a reply. All CB needs to read it.

macdizzle

9/22/21 12:40pm

Done. Thanks for the suggestion

krindorr

9/22/21 3:22pm

Good data. Surprised it's only 73%.

Hill4Heisman

9/22/21 1:30pm

For BYU (2008-2017 classes) those numbers are 5*: N/A, 4*: 23.1%, 3*: 1.5%, 2*/unrated: 4.2%

krindorr

9/22/21 2:43pm

The stars mostly rate athletic ability. Heart/Grit matter a lot too. The trick

runnincoug

9/22/21 10:31am

4*+ athletes hit at a very high rate

9/22/21 10:51am

Huge correlation between 4 and 5 stars and the NFL

stansburycoug

9/22/21 10:53am

I think it largely depends on the coaches and the program. Some will get a recruit and totally miss the botch

SwimmingWithSharks

9/22/21 10:58am

BYU seems to outperform their recruiting rank on the field. Does BYU have more

thewaterboy

9/22/21 10:59am

Honestly, hard to say thus far. Still early in Sitake's tenure, but can look at how Utah did over the last decade

krindorr

9/22/21 11:05am

If you look at the programs that consistently outperform their recruiting rank

g$

9/22/21 11:29am

Some of it is legit, some of it is not.

Cougzilla

9/22/21 11:00am

Stars matter. A player who is ranked 4* by the time he is a junior is already

Iron Coug

9/22/21 11:42am

Agree. Despite its flaws, a 4 star recruit is still a desireable get. If you can

Forzaitalia

9/22/21 11:49am

Always exceptions but for the most part it matters.

9/22/21 11:47am

They’re reliable when BYU gets one, but garbage if we only get 2 and 3

macdizzle

9/22/21 11:58am

Who are BYU's 5* over the past five years?

TheMole

9/22/21 12:27pm

No one.

Soupie

9/22/21 12:34pm

Here's a complete list of the top recruits for BYU all time per 247

9/22/21 12:40pm

Seems like a lot of our highly rated guys did not pan out.

machete

9/22/21 1:13pm

Here's a list of BYU recruits in the last decade that were ranked as top 1000 HS recruits

krindorr

9/22/21 3:45pm

We've had some good ones in the past decade. But man that top 10 is kinda sad

machete

9/22/21 3:53pm

A big part of that is that the modern rating system didn't start until 2001 and the first few years were a bit squirrely

krindorr

9/22/21 4:03pm

That was cool and interesting. Thanks for the link.

TheMole

9/22/21 1:50pm

It's not.

FT487

9/22/21 12:28pm

Report problem with this ad

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.

Report problem with this ad