Sep 22, 2021
1:00:39pm
1:00:39pm
Plus, people's minds inherently don't deal well with statistics, especially with large, disparate numbers
It's very similar to when a rookie QB has a rough game and we point out that Peyton Manning also had a bad rookie year.
Sure, the rookie could be Peyton, that's in the realm of possibility. But a bad rookie year still isn't a good sign when we consider the many QBs who did poorly who we don't even remember now. But because we don't remember them, we focus on the success. Which is in play. But not necessarily likely.
Same here, but even worse because there's so many fewer 5* than unrated. And so you end up with 20 5* recruits getting drafted and 20 2*/unrated recruits being drafted and it's easy to think they're about the same, without considering the pool of 2*/unrated is MUCH larger.
Sure, the rookie could be Peyton, that's in the realm of possibility. But a bad rookie year still isn't a good sign when we consider the many QBs who did poorly who we don't even remember now. But because we don't remember them, we focus on the success. Which is in play. But not necessarily likely.
Same here, but even worse because there's so many fewer 5* than unrated. And so you end up with 20 5* recruits getting drafted and 20 2*/unrated recruits being drafted and it's easy to think they're about the same, without considering the pool of 2*/unrated is MUCH larger.
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