Getting the right coach is more important, but recruiting is #2

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Sep 22, 2021
9:12:12am

CaliWG Truly Addicted User

Getting the right coach is more important, but recruiting is #2

There are a lot of programs that recruit very well, but the inability of the coaches to develop, scheme, or run disciplined programs prevent them from succeeding. The reality of recruiting is that improved star ratings come with offers, the kids with the best offers get rated higher, so it can be a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Sep 22, 2021 at 9:12:12am

Message modified by CaliWG on Sep 22, 2021 at 9:12:48am

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CaliWG

Bio page: CaliWG
Joined: Feb 8, 2005
Last login: May 6, 2024
Total posts: 24,115 (1,544 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Four-star blah blah blah

spoxjox

9/22/21 8:58am

Yes and significantly more likely to play in the NFL

9/22/21 8:59am

How many stars were Zach Wilson, and how many stars would Young, McMahon, Detmer

9/22/21 11:11am

You are always going to have outliers and players that are late bloomers

Yunit

9/22/21 11:32am

Not really accurate. Most successful NFL players are not 4 or 5 star recruits..

9/22/21 7:34pm

This is ridiculous on so many levels

stansburycoug

9/22/21 9:00pm

Wait, so you think the NFL doesn't start more 5 stars because they're so rare?

9/22/21 11:04pm

Zach Wilson was a top 1000 HS recruit nationally, not some nobody

krindorr

9/22/21 3:43pm

Yeah, not nobody, but not a 5 or even a 4 star recruit, right? Yet a 1st round..

9/22/21 5:16pm

You're arguing a straw man

krindorr

9/22/21 5:27pm

Haha, I don't think you know what "straw man" means, man. But check this out...

9/22/21 7:31pm

You are using ridiculous factors to fit your narrative. We are not saying

Yunit

9/23/21 12:05am

People want to act like Florida High Schools produce good recruits, but most college & NFL players are from other states

krindorr

9/23/21 7:28am

That's logic.

spoxjox

9/23/21 8:33am

Yes

SCcoug

9/22/21 8:59am

Yes

DKN

9/22/21 9:00am

Ask Alabama.

BoiseBlue

9/22/21 9:00am

Finding the freak of the freaks in the country isn't all that hard

SinkingQuffa

9/22/21 9:05am

or ask Texas...wait...

miggida

9/22/21 1:58pm

I have no idea, but when I coach

Choke

9/22/21 9:01am

Is take the hungry 4 star any day.

Brigham

9/22/21 9:01am

Teaching grit at an early age.

Soy Celeste

9/22/21 1:03pm

why not take the 4-star and simply stop feeding him? 🙂

Hill4Heisman

9/22/21 1:29pm

4 star means people have known about you longer and lots of them like you

DeekLyfter

9/22/21 9:01am

Yes. There will be outliers, but overall it is accurate.

Brigham

9/22/21 9:01am

This. Some people love to point to situations where a one- or no-star kid turns

Tricky

9/22/21 10:44am

Plus, people's minds inherently don't deal well with statistics, especially with large, disparate numbers

krindorr

9/22/21 1:00pm

Aren't the ratings simply based off of how many offers kids get? So isn't it

Cougar TD

9/22/21 9:01am

Statistically yes in a large sample size, but on an individual basis it can

inertiaman

9/22/21 9:02am

This - and recruiting rankings, esp for the top 10, roughly align with

COUGND

9/22/21 9:05am

It's not a perfect metric, but it's pretty darn reliable.

9/22/21 9:10am

Most, not all, but most of the top recruited athletes in the country do end up being top picks in the NFL draft...

Coug

9/22/21 9:11am

Getting the right coach is more important, but recruiting is #2

CaliWG

9/22/21 9:12am

Star ratings inarguably matter

nova_coug_fan

9/22/21 9:23am

To help with numbers:

FabLabCougar

9/22/21 11:51am

It’d be interesting to see the same data after 5 years in the league

BYU'01

9/22/21 12:01pm

Star ratings matter to fans like us

scott715

9/22/21 12:03pm

It's kinda like valuing your house based on Zillow. Ballpark, but not 100%

Pangare

9/22/21 9:42am

You can't take isolated instances of a 2 star walk-on making an NFL roster

LifeLongLakerFan

9/22/21 9:52am

The ranking system is all about being in the right place at

AltTabbins

9/22/21 10:08am

Ask any team that's won a NC lately

ReggaeCoug

9/22/21 10:09am

Isn't this a "default" problem-- all 4* are 4* for a reason, but 2* is default.

jkccoug

9/22/21 10:13am

Yes! Unless they go to BYU.

yesitisnt

9/22/21 10:21am

61% of 5* are drafted, 23% of 4*, 5.1% of 3*, and 0.5% of 2 star or lower

krindorr

9/22/21 10:21am

Excellent post.

inertiaman

9/22/21 10:26am

This post should be required reading for all college football fans

Hazzard

9/22/21 10:39am

I have seen the statistical analysis performed 3-4 times over the past 20 years

g$

9/22/21 11:20am

Fair enough- but there were only 34 5* recruits for 2021. So, that is pretty rarified air.

PJMort

9/22/21 11:40am

Star rankings have evolved a bit over the years, but 5* grades are supposed to

g$

9/22/21 11:47am

I don't think it's impressive at all

Coop

9/22/21 12:01pm

If you look at the article I linked the average 5* ends up drafted in the 2nd round

krindorr

9/22/21 1:06pm

You need to post this as a post not a reply. All CB needs to read it.

macdizzle

9/22/21 12:40pm

Done. Thanks for the suggestion

krindorr

9/22/21 3:22pm

Good data. Surprised it's only 73%.

Hill4Heisman

9/22/21 1:30pm

For BYU (2008-2017 classes) those numbers are 5*: N/A, 4*: 23.1%, 3*: 1.5%, 2*/unrated: 4.2%

krindorr

9/22/21 2:43pm

The stars mostly rate athletic ability. Heart/Grit matter a lot too. The trick

runnincoug

9/22/21 10:31am

4*+ athletes hit at a very high rate

9/22/21 10:51am

Huge correlation between 4 and 5 stars and the NFL

stansburycoug

9/22/21 10:53am

I think it largely depends on the coaches and the program. Some will get a recruit and totally miss the botch

SwimmingWithSharks

9/22/21 10:58am

BYU seems to outperform their recruiting rank on the field. Does BYU have more

thewaterboy

9/22/21 10:59am

Honestly, hard to say thus far. Still early in Sitake's tenure, but can look at how Utah did over the last decade

krindorr

9/22/21 11:05am

If you look at the programs that consistently outperform their recruiting rank

g$

9/22/21 11:29am

Some of it is legit, some of it is not.

Cougzilla

9/22/21 11:00am

Stars matter. A player who is ranked 4* by the time he is a junior is already

Iron Coug

9/22/21 11:42am

Agree. Despite its flaws, a 4 star recruit is still a desireable get. If you can

Forzaitalia

9/22/21 11:49am

Always exceptions but for the most part it matters.

9/22/21 11:47am

They’re reliable when BYU gets one, but garbage if we only get 2 and 3

macdizzle

9/22/21 11:58am

Who are BYU's 5* over the past five years?

TheMole

9/22/21 12:27pm

No one.

Soupie

9/22/21 12:34pm

Here's a complete list of the top recruits for BYU all time per 247

9/22/21 12:40pm

Seems like a lot of our highly rated guys did not pan out.

machete

9/22/21 1:13pm

Here's a list of BYU recruits in the last decade that were ranked as top 1000 HS recruits

krindorr

9/22/21 3:45pm

We've had some good ones in the past decade. But man that top 10 is kinda sad

machete

9/22/21 3:53pm

A big part of that is that the modern rating system didn't start until 2001 and the first few years were a bit squirrely

krindorr

9/22/21 4:03pm

That was cool and interesting. Thanks for the link.

TheMole

9/22/21 1:50pm

It's not.

FT487

9/22/21 12:28pm

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