Sorry but I think your friend has a very narrow and pessimistic view of the college athletics. The CFB landscape is not static and likely will change greatly within the next 5 yrs IMO. Based on our previous experience, sure, I can see how he could draw those conclusions but I believe that circumstances can and will change that will give BYU different and probably better options than are available now.
As to those who think, BYU athletics will go the way of BYU Idaho, I disagree as well. The reasoning for those changes are much different for each school. College athletics (not just football) bring a lot of attention for the church and our values to many people that we can't get in the same numbers otherwise. BYU Idaho and BYU Hawaii were not in that same position as BYU is.
Just my opinion.