Looking at the paper in the Lancet and CDC report

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Mar 27, 2020
12:12:08am

UpperCirqueUte Contributor

Looking at the paper in the Lancet and CDC report

it seems pretty clear that a non-insignificant fraction of individuals die within 1) or 12 days of contracting the disorder. This is exactly when you would expect to start seeing a change. As a point of reference, I flew from SLC to JFK on March 5th. The flight was 1/3 full. I take that flight once a month, and I had never seen a time when there was an empty seat. So clearly there was significant social distancing going on by then.

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UpperCirqueUte

Bio page: UpperCirqueUte
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
Last login: Mar 3, 2022
Total posts: 4,680 (14 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

March 26, 268 deaths; March 19, 56 deaths; March 12, 3 deaths.

3/26/20 10:36pm

We have seen a slowdown in the daily rate of increase the past couple days

jkccoug

3/26/20 10:41pm

And could this mean the strict public health measures are working? That

3/26/20 10:48pm

Probably not far enough along in the government mandated shut downs for them to make a difference in deaths right now

3/26/20 10:53pm

I think we are far enough along in the public health changes to see a major

3/26/20 11:05pm

Maybe. Washington shut down schools on March 12. They were the first state to do so right? Most everything I’ve read

3/26/20 11:10pm

But lots of people were practicing social distancing before March 12.

3/26/20 11:14pm

Exactly. That’s why I said this:

3/26/20 11:17pm

Who? Every school and stadium was packed.

777

3/26/20 11:28pm

Not in Washington. Or in the Bay Area. They were social distancing well before March 12. And they’ve also seen very

3/26/20 11:35pm

Even if we are, we’re testing more and more every day, which means we’ll have more positive cases

Mike Honcho

3/26/20 11:48pm

It’s hard to know in real time. We actually had two days with lower

jkccoug

3/26/20 11:08pm

Every politician is banking on us thinking these measures were the key

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:35am

Let's be honest, you wouldn't change your view regardless of the trend.

garyfan

3/27/20 12:50am

Hopefully this little plateau continues for a couple of days. It may flare up again if other cities see an outbreak

3/26/20 10:51pm

Not sure what data is key, but death rates are steady at 10-14% increases

Joe Banks

3/26/20 11:00pm

I think he means literally the last two days have seen flattening in growth of deaths per day. Which is true.

3/26/20 11:03pm

I don’t see those numbers as a possibility. Maybe I’m wrong and

The Dude Abides

3/26/20 10:43pm

I don’t think that with strict public health measures that it gets that bad.

3/26/20 10:50pm

85873 total cases from the 100s in just two weeks. 16650 new cases yesterday alone, 1299 deaths.. and you think

ChinaFan

3/26/20 10:52pm

Denominator. It’s important

3/26/20 10:55pm

You’re assuming there were just 100s two weeks ago. There were 100s that were tested and confirmed but undoubtedly

3/26/20 10:56pm

Oh... and I don’t trust any of China’s reported numbers. So comparisons to China

3/26/20 11:56pm

Looks like warmer temps coming could be helpful based on research

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:38am

This assumes that those who have caught the virus are identical to the remaining population that have not.

3/26/20 10:51pm

Holy math....

DeekLyfter

3/26/20 10:59pm

We all agree that if we get to the point that 6,000 are dying a day from

3/26/20 11:02pm

No.

Plato

3/26/20 11:05pm

What on Earth makes you think it's going to get to that?

DeekLyfter

3/26/20 11:21pm

Math. Didn't you read his post?

Plato

3/26/20 11:23pm

RE: March 26, 268 deaths; March 19, 56 deaths; March 12, 3 deaths.

EMAC

3/26/20 11:02pm

Well, looks like somewhere between May 21 and May 28 we’re all dead.

bluecheese

3/26/20 11:03pm

Very quickly we’re at 5 million dead per day, then the next week 25 million per day, then we’re really toast once

3/26/20 11:06pm

I hope it’s before the 27th. I’m on call that day and don’t wanna work.

bluecheese

3/26/20 11:10pm

I fly off for my locums hospitalist gig tomorrow.

3/26/20 11:21pm

Where ya goin?

bluecheese

3/26/20 11:23pm

Haha, this has been my thinking. Just because something grows exponentially from

dfudge

3/26/20 11:41pm

To be consistent, there were 282,000 jobless claims last week and 3 million this week. So we will undoubtedly see 30MM

3/27/20 12:01am

Wow, in a couple weeks, this thing could be killing more people than AR-14s.

stlcougs

3/27/20 6:53am

People don’t want to believe and they just aren’t going to. All we can really do

Josef K

3/26/20 11:03pm

It’s beyond absurd to think that we’ll have 6k+ dying every day

Mike Honcho

3/26/20 11:21pm

Absurd? Meet Italy. Even with weeks of strict public health measures

3/26/20 11:31pm

They leveled off only 9 days from their quarantine

CSoul

3/26/20 11:35pm

What is the median time to death on the vent? The 25th quartile?

3/26/20 11:38pm

Median is 13 days from symptom onset. Time to symptoms from infection

CSoul

3/26/20 11:44pm

Looking at the paper in the Lancet and CDC report

3/27/20 12:12am

Then you are reading it wrong. For reference

CSoul

3/27/20 12:47am

Your extrapolations are so simplistic that it’s hard to take you seriously

Mike Honcho

3/26/20 11:37pm

Agree. So Ridiculous.

kotacoug

3/26/20 11:38pm

Their growth in deaths per day has actually fallen since their peak on 3/21. They instituted mandatory quarantine

3/26/20 11:42pm

Even though not true peak, the 20th was within the margin of peak

CSoul

3/26/20 11:46pm

If you would look at my data you can see the bell curve and the growth

CSoul

3/26/20 11:30pm

This graph can't be right. The Netherlands is blue and the US is orange.

sah22

3/27/20 8:51am

Just think in 8 weeks it will be like millions dying everyday!

kimdaddy35

3/27/20 12:07am

And soon after that we’ll hit billions dying every day.

3/27/20 12:09am

Yeah it’s not going to be all good anytime soon. And the death toll in Italy

bigbossbyu

3/27/20 12:48am

You say they have been dead on, but the guy who write the Imperial College

kimdaddy35

3/27/20 1:05am

Interesting. I guess we’ll see. Many “experts” and the “best in the business”

bigbossbyu

3/27/20 6:51pm

How are there 10 thumbs up on this? The curve is not exponential into infinity.

The Old Y

3/27/20 1:31am

Because people on here just pick a side and anyone that agrees with that side

kimdaddy35

3/27/20 1:38am

You misread. I only took the curve out to 3 weeks, not infinity.

3/27/20 1:44am

This isn't how things work. The idea that social

The Old Y

3/27/20 1:51am

True, as long as governments have shut down everything, the curve goes down

Josef K

3/27/20 1:45am

No. It isn't. You have literally zero data that says that's true.

The Old Y

3/27/20 1:47am

No country has slowed an exponential death rate without shutting down

Josef K

3/27/20 2:22am

No amount of social engineering explains the amount of blunting

The Old Y

3/27/20 2:36am

The virus is very localized in Italy, the us, Spain, and china

Josef K

3/27/20 2:51am

Sure, but don't change the subject. The death toll would never have looked

The Old Y

3/27/20 3:00am

It depends on how big of an area you are drawing from

Josef K

3/27/20 3:08am

65 Billion Deaths by the end of July!

Jingleheimer

3/27/20 4:02am

I love the thumbs down of basic math

coolcats

3/27/20 7:42am

The basic math part is fine. The conclusions drawn using it are ridiculous

3/27/20 8:20am

My son grew 3 inches in the last year. By the time he’s 50 he’s going to be 15 feet tall. It’s the application of basic

3/27/20 8:27am

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