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Mar 27, 2020
1:47
:52
am
The Old Y
Truly Addicted User
No. It isn't. You have literally zero data that says that's true.
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The Old Y
Bio page
The Old Y
Joined
Apr 4, 2005
Last login
May 3, 2024
Total posts
13,235 (179 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
March 26, 268 deaths; March 19, 56 deaths; March 12, 3 deaths.
UpperCirqueUte
3/26/20 10:36pm
We have seen a slowdown in the daily rate of increase the past couple days
jkccoug
3/26/20 10:41pm
And could this mean the strict public health measures are working? That
UpperCirqueUte
3/26/20 10:48pm
Probably not far enough along in the government mandated shut downs for them to make a difference in deaths right now
YIsForBrigham
3/26/20 10:53pm
I think we are far enough along in the public health changes to see a major
UpperCirqueUte
3/26/20 11:05pm
Maybe. Washington shut down schools on March 12. They were the first state to do so right? Most everything I’ve read
YIsForBrigham
3/26/20 11:10pm
But lots of people were practicing social distancing before March 12.
UpperCirqueUte
3/26/20 11:14pm
Exactly. That’s why I said this:
YIsForBrigham
3/26/20 11:17pm
Who? Every school and stadium was packed.
777
3/26/20 11:28pm
Not in Washington. Or in the Bay Area. They were social distancing well before March 12. And they’ve also seen very
YIsForBrigham
3/26/20 11:35pm
Even if we are, we’re testing more and more every day, which means we’ll have more positive cases
Mike Honcho
3/26/20 11:48pm
It’s hard to know in real time. We actually had two days with lower
jkccoug
3/26/20 11:08pm
Every politician is banking on us thinking these measures were the key
BYU '80
3/27/20 12:35am
Let's be honest, you wouldn't change your view regardless of the trend.
garyfan
3/27/20 12:50am
Hopefully this little plateau continues for a couple of days. It may flare up again if other cities see an outbreak
YIsForBrigham
3/26/20 10:51pm
Not sure what data is key, but death rates are steady at 10-14% increases
Joe Banks
3/26/20 11:00pm
I think he means literally the last two days have seen flattening in growth of deaths per day. Which is true.
YIsForBrigham
3/26/20 11:03pm
I don’t see those numbers as a possibility. Maybe I’m wrong and
The Dude Abides
3/26/20 10:43pm
I don’t think that with strict public health measures that it gets that bad.
UpperCirqueUte
3/26/20 10:50pm
85873 total cases from the 100s in just two weeks. 16650 new cases yesterday alone, 1299 deaths.. and you think
ChinaFan
3/26/20 10:52pm
Denominator. It’s important
YIsForBrigham
3/26/20 10:55pm
You’re assuming there were just 100s two weeks ago. There were 100s that were tested and confirmed but undoubtedly
Pistol Shrimp
3/26/20 10:56pm
Oh... and I don’t trust any of China’s reported numbers. So comparisons to China
BoiseBlueCoug
3/26/20 11:56pm
Looks like warmer temps coming could be helpful based on research
BYU '80
3/27/20 12:38am
This assumes that those who have caught the virus are identical to the remaining population that have not.
Pistol Shrimp
3/26/20 10:51pm
Holy math....
DeekLyfter
3/26/20 10:59pm
We all agree that if we get to the point that 6,000 are dying a day from
UpperCirqueUte
3/26/20 11:02pm
No.
Plato
3/26/20 11:05pm
What on Earth makes you think it's going to get to that?
DeekLyfter
3/26/20 11:21pm
Math. Didn't you read his post?
Plato
3/26/20 11:23pm
RE: March 26, 268 deaths; March 19, 56 deaths; March 12, 3 deaths.
EMAC
3/26/20 11:02pm
Well, looks like somewhere between May 21 and May 28 we’re all dead.
bluecheese
3/26/20 11:03pm
Very quickly we’re at 5 million dead per day, then the next week 25 million per day, then we’re really toast once
Pistol Shrimp
3/26/20 11:06pm
I hope it’s before the 27th. I’m on call that day and don’t wanna work.
bluecheese
3/26/20 11:10pm
I fly off for my locums hospitalist gig tomorrow.
UpperCirqueUte
3/26/20 11:21pm
Where ya goin?
bluecheese
3/26/20 11:23pm
Haha, this has been my thinking. Just because something grows exponentially from
dfudge
3/26/20 11:41pm
To be consistent, there were 282,000 jobless claims last week and 3 million this week. So we will undoubtedly see 30MM
Pistol Shrimp
3/27/20 12:01am
Wow, in a couple weeks, this thing could be killing more people than AR-14s.
stlcougs
3/27/20 6:53am
People don’t want to believe and they just aren’t going to. All we can really do
Josef K
3/26/20 11:03pm
It’s beyond absurd to think that we’ll have 6k+ dying every day
Mike Honcho
3/26/20 11:21pm
Absurd? Meet Italy. Even with weeks of strict public health measures
UpperCirqueUte
3/26/20 11:31pm
They leveled off only 9 days from their quarantine
CSoul
3/26/20 11:35pm
What is the median time to death on the vent? The 25th quartile?
UpperCirqueUte
3/26/20 11:38pm
Median is 13 days from symptom onset. Time to symptoms from infection
CSoul
3/26/20 11:44pm
Looking at the paper in the Lancet and CDC report
UpperCirqueUte
3/27/20 12:12am
Then you are reading it wrong. For reference
CSoul
3/27/20 12:47am
Your extrapolations are so simplistic that it’s hard to take you seriously
Mike Honcho
3/26/20 11:37pm
Agree. So Ridiculous.
kotacoug
3/26/20 11:38pm
Their growth in deaths per day has actually fallen since their peak on 3/21. They instituted mandatory quarantine
YIsForBrigham
3/26/20 11:42pm
Even though not true peak, the 20th was within the margin of peak
CSoul
3/26/20 11:46pm
If you would look at my data you can see the bell curve and the growth
CSoul
3/26/20 11:30pm
This graph can't be right. The Netherlands is blue and the US is orange.
sah22
3/27/20 8:51am
Just think in 8 weeks it will be like millions dying everyday!
kimdaddy35
3/27/20 12:07am
And soon after that we’ll hit billions dying every day.
Pistol Shrimp
3/27/20 12:09am
Yeah it’s not going to be all good anytime soon. And the death toll in Italy
bigbossbyu
3/27/20 12:48am
You say they have been dead on, but the guy who write the Imperial College
kimdaddy35
3/27/20 1:05am
Interesting. I guess we’ll see. Many “experts” and the “best in the business”
bigbossbyu
3/27/20 6:51pm
How are there 10 thumbs up on this? The curve is not exponential into infinity.
The Old Y
3/27/20 1:31am
Because people on here just pick a side and anyone that agrees with that side
kimdaddy35
3/27/20 1:38am
You misread. I only took the curve out to 3 weeks, not infinity.
UpperCirqueUte
3/27/20 1:44am
This isn't how things work. The idea that social
The Old Y
3/27/20 1:51am
True, as long as governments have shut down everything, the curve goes down
Josef K
3/27/20 1:45am
No. It isn't. You have literally zero data that says that's true.
The Old Y
3/27/20 1:47am
No country has slowed an exponential death rate without shutting down
Josef K
3/27/20 2:22am
No amount of social engineering explains the amount of blunting
The Old Y
3/27/20 2:36am
The virus is very localized in Italy, the us, Spain, and china
Josef K
3/27/20 2:51am
Sure, but don't change the subject. The death toll would never have looked
The Old Y
3/27/20 3:00am
It depends on how big of an area you are drawing from
Josef K
3/27/20 3:08am
65 Billion Deaths by the end of July!
Jingleheimer
3/27/20 4:02am
I love the thumbs down of basic math
coolcats
3/27/20 7:42am
The basic math part is fine. The conclusions drawn using it are ridiculous
BoiseBlueCoug
3/27/20 8:20am
My son grew 3 inches in the last year. By the time he’s 50 he’s going to be 15 feet tall. It’s the application of basic
Pistol Shrimp
3/27/20 8:27am
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