I kinda disagree. The anecdotal info they get from being involved in lots of

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Mar 8, 2022
11:08:58am

Socrates Johnson Truly Addicted User

I kinda disagree. The anecdotal info they get from being involved in lots of

local transactions can be useful, especially since real estate markets are as local as markets can get. Can they predict crashes? I think the smarter ones can see the crash happening once the signs are there in their local market-- there was a guy in Maryland who clearly saw the 2008 crash coming even in 2006-- but that was because the signs were already there.

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Socrates Johnson

Previous username: jkccoug
Bio page: Socrates Johnson
Joined: Jul 19, 2002
Last login: May 24, 2024
Total posts: 30,191 (2,121 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Housing crash?

stenso

3/8/22 9:02am

My realtor SIL is insistent that it is only going to continue at its current trajectory.

Ragnar Danneskjold

3/8/22 9:05am

lol the realtors in my ward say the exact same thing

letthewookieewin

3/8/22 9:07am

The reason they say that is because of a lack of inventory and the time it takes

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 9:14am

The reason they say that is because they don't know any better and just want to sell homes. Come on now. Ragnar is right

letthewookieewin

3/8/22 9:16am

A rule to live by. Never get your information about something by the salesman

Mayor of Cougartown

3/8/22 9:19am

Haha, you think I heard that from a realtor?

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 9:30am

The reason they say that is because they are shysters. Realtors aren't economists and their trade gives them no special

Tokolosh

3/8/22 9:29am

I agree that they are shysters. I am staying that there is data to support

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 9:33am

I kinda disagree. The anecdotal info they get from being involved in lots of

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 11:08am

a good agent knows that the last $500k house they sold had 20 offers and 40 tours... and now the next $500k house they

HarlemCoug

3/8/22 12:19pm

There’s only a lack of inventory relative to a given amount of demand. When people cite a shortage as a reason prices

JollyGreenGiant

3/8/22 9:35am

I don't think that is entirely the case here.

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 9:37am

The biggest thing you aren't mentioning is just not the cost of the house

byublue42

3/8/22 10:59am

You are 100% correct about how interest rates could change and it could slow

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 12:02pm

Historically 30-years are always CPI +4%. Since 2009 its been +2%. Either way

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 1:07pm

haha. 7% mortgage rates in a year. Lol. You are dreaming.

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 1:14pm

You think banks will loan at a loss? CPI was 7.5% most recently. That means

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 1:38pm

Interest rates aren’t going to stay at current levels for very long

cougarfann888

3/8/22 1:48pm

What rate do you see inflation settling at?

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 1:54pm

I think we are seeing a lot of short term factors driving inflation.

cougarfann888

3/8/22 2:28pm

You really think we'll get back to 2-3% soon? I don't see that happening.

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 2:49pm

There was a technical change to the reporting on those numbers iirc

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 2:52pm

There definitely was-- in May 2020. It was to add money market deposit accounts

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 3:20pm

You are right with what you are saying

byublue42

3/8/22 3:01pm

Mortgage rates aren't tied to prime. Nice try

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 3:21pm

I should have said mortgage rates are affected by the prime rate, as is any

byublue42

3/8/22 4:35pm

Not a fan of realtors, but in the past month...

dwhitebud

3/8/22 9:32am

Exactly my point. I think realtors are in for a rough go of things

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 9:35am

There is an untapped supply of houses that could hit the market if prices keep

Nat Gas Man

3/8/22 9:39am

Institutional buyers. Bought between 19% and 23% of homes last year. They will keep buying. No other good options.

grandpacoug

3/8/22 11:02am

Has any realtor ever had a pessimistic outlook on the market?

sportsgeek82

3/8/22 10:49am

That seems plausible. But I’d think there would be a flood of homes for sale

WDaddy

3/8/22 9:06am

But more inventory will drive prices down.

Backcountry

3/8/22 9:24am

But flooding the inventory would saturate the market, causing a drop in prices

volleyjiver

3/8/22 9:27am

It depends on rental rates. If interest rates rise then rental rates will shoot

johnnybyu

3/8/22 9:37am

Doesn't make logical sense. Inflation can't self-correct. It only gets worse. Assets are the best thing to have.

Unibro

3/8/22 9:07am

There are lots of things that are questionable right now. Ivy Zelman who is

Nat Gas Man

3/8/22 9:10am

I don't follow this closely. Are there a massive number of mortgages

BYU71

3/8/22 9:11am

I am not sure that is the issue this time as much as rock bottom

crack

3/8/22 9:14am

I think real prices adjusted for inflation will go down. I am not sure nominal

johnnybyu

3/8/22 9:21am

Good question. I imagine if a lot of people in homes are mortgaged to the max

BYU71

3/8/22 9:22am

If wage inflation doesn't follow price inflation, and the fed significantly

DC12

3/8/22 9:31am

There is evidence people are over extending yes.

rad dawg

3/8/22 9:36am

<< Deleted >>

cougarfann888

3/8/22 9:57am

Who is defaulting on loans these days? Aren't they trying to avoid that as much

Adwight

3/8/22 9:12am

Supply is the problem.

byujdmba

3/8/22 9:15am

We need so many HS graduates to go into Trades in lieu of college.

Mayor of Cougartown

3/8/22 9:20am

This. Also hoping that technology like 3D printing with cement can streamline

Ikuna

3/8/22 9:30am

RE: Housing crash?

Backcountry

3/8/22 9:23am

I think people are sitting on a lot of equity in their homes. They may have mortgaged to the max when they bought but

HarlemCoug

3/8/22 9:27am

Right that's the thing, we desperately need more tradespeople. The

Mayor of Cougartown

3/8/22 9:31am

That’s not a thing coming back honestly. People aren’t going into trades

pink22

3/8/22 9:49am

The trades were mostly Hispanics and there has been a net negative

Nat Gas Man

3/8/22 10:02am

You have a decent amount of equity if prices are where they are now. If they

pink22

3/8/22 9:47am

Only if rental rates drop a lot. Few people are going to sell to save their

johnnybyu

3/8/22 9:50am

Yes, relative to inflation. You probably won't see huge decline in nominal terms

Pasadena

3/8/22 9:51am

Agreed doubt we will see big nominal drops. I do think there are going to be a

johnnybyu

3/8/22 9:55am

The roofing industry is predicting a strong year in 2022.

Cougarclaw

3/8/22 10:15am

I think changing rates will have a bigger impact

niqmadu

3/8/22 10:51am

House Prices need to crash, most disagree with me except Harry Dent and my FIL

DCCougFan

3/8/22 11:27am

Dent is a goober. The dude has made so many bad calls recently.

Backcountry

3/8/22 11:44am

Odds are probably the same either way. There is always risk.

3/8/22 11:54am

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