You think banks will loan at a loss? CPI was 7.5% most recently. That means

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Mar 8, 2022
1:38:09pm

Socrates Johnson Truly Addicted User

You think banks will loan at a loss? CPI was 7.5% most recently. That means

real mortgage rates are -3% right now. I'm not projecting we even get to core CPI levels in a year. I'm suggesting the gap MUST narrow and therefore it will. The only way rates don't get into that territory is if inflation cools. Not saying it won't-- IDK. But I certainly don't expect that.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Mar 8, 2022 at 1:38:09pm

Message modified by Socrates Johnson on Mar 8, 2022 at 1:39:36pm

Message modified by Socrates Johnson on Mar 8, 2022 at 1:40:48pm

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Socrates Johnson

Previous username: jkccoug
Bio page: Socrates Johnson
Joined: Jul 19, 2002
Last login: May 23, 2024
Total posts: 30,189 (2,121 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Housing crash?

stenso

3/8/22 9:02am

My realtor SIL is insistent that it is only going to continue at its current trajectory.

Ragnar Danneskjold

3/8/22 9:05am

lol the realtors in my ward say the exact same thing

letthewookieewin

3/8/22 9:07am

The reason they say that is because of a lack of inventory and the time it takes

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 9:14am

The reason they say that is because they don't know any better and just want to sell homes. Come on now. Ragnar is right

letthewookieewin

3/8/22 9:16am

A rule to live by. Never get your information about something by the salesman

Mayor of Cougartown

3/8/22 9:19am

Haha, you think I heard that from a realtor?

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 9:30am

The reason they say that is because they are shysters. Realtors aren't economists and their trade gives them no special

Tokolosh

3/8/22 9:29am

I agree that they are shysters. I am staying that there is data to support

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 9:33am

I kinda disagree. The anecdotal info they get from being involved in lots of

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 11:08am

a good agent knows that the last $500k house they sold had 20 offers and 40 tours... and now the next $500k house they

HarlemCoug

3/8/22 12:19pm

There’s only a lack of inventory relative to a given amount of demand. When people cite a shortage as a reason prices

JollyGreenGiant

3/8/22 9:35am

I don't think that is entirely the case here.

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 9:37am

The biggest thing you aren't mentioning is just not the cost of the house

byublue42

3/8/22 10:59am

You are 100% correct about how interest rates could change and it could slow

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 12:02pm

Historically 30-years are always CPI +4%. Since 2009 its been +2%. Either way

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 1:07pm

haha. 7% mortgage rates in a year. Lol. You are dreaming.

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 1:14pm

You think banks will loan at a loss? CPI was 7.5% most recently. That means

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 1:38pm

Interest rates aren’t going to stay at current levels for very long

cougarfann888

3/8/22 1:48pm

What rate do you see inflation settling at?

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 1:54pm

I think we are seeing a lot of short term factors driving inflation.

cougarfann888

3/8/22 2:28pm

You really think we'll get back to 2-3% soon? I don't see that happening.

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 2:49pm

There was a technical change to the reporting on those numbers iirc

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 2:52pm

There definitely was-- in May 2020. It was to add money market deposit accounts

Socrates Johnson

3/8/22 3:20pm

You are right with what you are saying

byublue42

3/8/22 3:01pm

Mortgage rates aren't tied to prime. Nice try

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 3:21pm

I should have said mortgage rates are affected by the prime rate, as is any

byublue42

3/8/22 4:35pm

Not a fan of realtors, but in the past month...

dwhitebud

3/8/22 9:32am

Exactly my point. I think realtors are in for a rough go of things

RexIdaCoug

3/8/22 9:35am

There is an untapped supply of houses that could hit the market if prices keep

Nat Gas Man

3/8/22 9:39am

Institutional buyers. Bought between 19% and 23% of homes last year. They will keep buying. No other good options.

grandpacoug

3/8/22 11:02am

Has any realtor ever had a pessimistic outlook on the market?

sportsgeek82

3/8/22 10:49am

That seems plausible. But I’d think there would be a flood of homes for sale

WDaddy

3/8/22 9:06am

But more inventory will drive prices down.

Backcountry

3/8/22 9:24am

But flooding the inventory would saturate the market, causing a drop in prices

volleyjiver

3/8/22 9:27am

It depends on rental rates. If interest rates rise then rental rates will shoot

johnnybyu

3/8/22 9:37am

Doesn't make logical sense. Inflation can't self-correct. It only gets worse. Assets are the best thing to have.

Unibro

3/8/22 9:07am

There are lots of things that are questionable right now. Ivy Zelman who is

Nat Gas Man

3/8/22 9:10am

I don't follow this closely. Are there a massive number of mortgages

BYU71

3/8/22 9:11am

I am not sure that is the issue this time as much as rock bottom

crack

3/8/22 9:14am

I think real prices adjusted for inflation will go down. I am not sure nominal

johnnybyu

3/8/22 9:21am

Good question. I imagine if a lot of people in homes are mortgaged to the max

BYU71

3/8/22 9:22am

If wage inflation doesn't follow price inflation, and the fed significantly

DC12

3/8/22 9:31am

There is evidence people are over extending yes.

rad dawg

3/8/22 9:36am

<< Deleted >>

cougarfann888

3/8/22 9:57am

Who is defaulting on loans these days? Aren't they trying to avoid that as much

Adwight

3/8/22 9:12am

Supply is the problem.

byujdmba

3/8/22 9:15am

We need so many HS graduates to go into Trades in lieu of college.

Mayor of Cougartown

3/8/22 9:20am

This. Also hoping that technology like 3D printing with cement can streamline

Ikuna

3/8/22 9:30am

RE: Housing crash?

Backcountry

3/8/22 9:23am

I think people are sitting on a lot of equity in their homes. They may have mortgaged to the max when they bought but

HarlemCoug

3/8/22 9:27am

Right that's the thing, we desperately need more tradespeople. The

Mayor of Cougartown

3/8/22 9:31am

That’s not a thing coming back honestly. People aren’t going into trades

pink22

3/8/22 9:49am

The trades were mostly Hispanics and there has been a net negative

Nat Gas Man

3/8/22 10:02am

You have a decent amount of equity if prices are where they are now. If they

pink22

3/8/22 9:47am

Only if rental rates drop a lot. Few people are going to sell to save their

johnnybyu

3/8/22 9:50am

Yes, relative to inflation. You probably won't see huge decline in nominal terms

Pasadena

3/8/22 9:51am

Agreed doubt we will see big nominal drops. I do think there are going to be a

johnnybyu

3/8/22 9:55am

The roofing industry is predicting a strong year in 2022.

Cougarclaw

3/8/22 10:15am

I think changing rates will have a bigger impact

niqmadu

3/8/22 10:51am

House Prices need to crash, most disagree with me except Harry Dent and my FIL

DCCougFan

3/8/22 11:27am

Dent is a goober. The dude has made so many bad calls recently.

Backcountry

3/8/22 11:44am

Odds are probably the same either way. There is always risk.

3/8/22 11:54am

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