For one, that research essentially assumes that the Law of Large Numbers will bail you out in the long run

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Jun 22, 2022
12:24:30pm

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

For one, that research essentially assumes that the Law of Large Numbers will bail you out in the long run

But doesn't take into account sufficiently the limited number of drives, scoring plays and games per year — which all limit the Law of Large Numbers from really justifying that kind of radical tactic.

But it's pretty clear teams go for it on 4th and short far more often than they used to.

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Indy Coug

Bio page: Indy Coug
Joined: Dec 20, 2001
Last login: Apr 26, 2024
Total posts: 184,728 (9,833 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

FWIW, Tuiaki said they did a lot of analytical research on things which actually matter with defensive play

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

6/22/22 11:46am

1st insight: Tackle guy with ball

braddahmike

6/22/22 11:48am

Preventing big plays is the primary goal of the system because those hurt you more than anything else.

molodyets

6/22/22 11:48am

He's got a point but you gotta stop the other team on downs as well.

Kajdin

6/22/22 11:49am

The biggest problem last year, by far, was giving up almost 5 yards a run on first down

Indy Coug

6/22/22 11:51am

I just remember dreading 3rd and long

AF Cougar

6/22/22 12:07pm

It felt almost automatic for the opponent. I'd be interested to see how our 3rd and long defensive stats compare

IdahoCoug

6/22/22 12:14pm

I just looked up our stats for opponent's 3rd down conversion. So not 3rd and long, per se, but still relevant.

IdahoCoug

6/22/22 12:24pm

We were 109th in opponents' 4th down conversion rate.

IdahoCoug

6/22/22 12:26pm

BYU was 106th at 43%

Indy Coug

6/22/22 12:31pm

The stats I looked up didn't include FCS opponents, only games involving two FBS teams

IdahoCoug

6/22/22 3:00pm

This is a good example of why looking at stats as N/130 doesn't tell you much. We had 194 3rd downs last year (maybe

molodyets

6/22/22 12:39pm

114th out of 130 isn't very good, right?

boctabulous

6/22/22 5:31pm

And I look at 3rd and long as a VERY big play. Them converting on 3rd and long

viper

6/22/22 12:16pm

Gotta stop the run on first down, that's the most important rule of defense 101.

Mitty

6/22/22 12:25pm

Tuiaki did say stopping the run was a top priority

Dr T-bone

6/22/22 2:56pm

Seems like I've heard that many times before. Kind of like when we hear them say

ManicBlue

6/22/22 5:11pm

BYU opponents gained 5 or more yards on 1st Down 46.6% of the time in 2021. That was up from 34.3% in 2020 & 42.1% in 19

Spiff

6/22/22 4:59pm

I think that's an interesting conversation - I honestly don't know the answer.

Eddie

6/22/22 11:53am

Giving up a long play (especially a score) is an outlier of offensive performance, so you are in effect spotting them 7

molodyets

6/22/22 11:55am

Team with more points per play (explosiveness) wins 71% of the time:

molodyets

6/22/22 12:01pm

Are there teams that don't try and prevent big plays?

Coug

6/22/22 11:55am

RE: Preventing big plays is the primary goal of the system because those hurt

Heath Squashwell

6/22/22 11:55am

Or just limiting the number of points scored. That doesn't factor in time of

cougaman

6/22/22 12:13pm

Three words.... Coastal Caro Lina.

6/22/22 12:25pm

Five Words? Ala Bama Bir Ming Ham

6/22/22 2:35pm

Was he saying it is research since the end of last season, or in general? Because if it's stuff he's learned over his

IdahoCoug

6/22/22 11:51am

Whatever side you’re on regarding Tuiaki and his D the following is true:

Beggar

6/22/22 11:51am

RE: FWIW, Tuiaki said they did a lot of analytical research on things which

oryguncoug

6/22/22 11:52am

This is amazing... Sitake, Lamb, Clune and now Tuiaki... former DC's and current DC experience...

Coug

6/22/22 11:53am

The plan of the defense is a failing one.

kimdaddy35

6/22/22 11:55am

It is the defense Sitake wants. That won’t change with the coordinator unless he

6/22/22 11:57am

Not according to Sitake's own mouth.

kimdaddy35

6/22/22 11:59am

I will trust his actions over how some fan took his words

6/22/22 12:00pm

In other words you don't pay attention. I figured based on your comments.

kimdaddy35

6/22/22 12:16pm

I wouldn’t make a habit of putting what is said in PR situations ahead of what

6/22/22 12:21pm

21-4. If there was a big reason to change they'd do it.

Blueto

6/22/22 12:00pm

'19 Toledo, '19 USF, '20 CC, and '21 UAB games had similar feels

Doogal McCougar

6/22/22 12:20pm

The plan isn't the issue. We saw that with the first 4 games last year.

Gorgias

6/22/22 12:08pm

Recruiting and development, but let's not put any blame on him because he just

cougaman

6/22/22 12:16pm

Very few teams outside the SEC could compete with that many key injuries.

rad dawg

6/22/22 12:24pm

More excuses.

cougaman

6/22/22 6:01pm

I didn't hear anything that lead me to believe that the research was just done this year. That is CB echo chamber.

PJMort

6/22/22 11:56am

But 3 former and 1 current DC can't figure out the issues?

Coug

6/22/22 11:56am

They didn't do analytics to see "what was wrong". They wanted affirmation of the things to focus the most.

Indy Coug

6/22/22 11:56am

Perhaps we should consider that they are not all clueless but think they are

6/22/22 11:57am

Nah. People here know much better.

Blueto

6/22/22 11:59am

Seriously. Have we stooped to Yelp level on CB?

kiyoshige

6/22/22 6:36pm

You sound like the old-school baseball scouts in Moneyball.

Gorgias

6/22/22 11:59am

That's an amazing interpretation, anyway. CB FTW!

Abe Froman

6/22/22 12:00pm

Every team in college football does this.

rad dawg

6/22/22 12:01pm

Sometimes humans are more receptive to change when a little more objective

BringYourUltimate

6/22/22 5:39pm

We can hope

RUNBYU1

6/22/22 5:48pm

I'm totally buying his explanation of playing "aggressive coverages" as opposed

BGRTHNUMEGO

6/22/22 11:54am

Drives of 18 plays or more are very rare in CFB, so we've decided to focus our defense

6/22/22 11:57am

Not 18, but 12-play 7 minute drives seem to happen pretty regularly vs BYU

Kajdin

6/22/22 12:00pm

The non-garbage-time national average for plays per drive is 5.71. Last year we avg 6.28. The difference between top 10

molodyets

6/22/22 12:28pm

Also, national average time off the clock - 144 seconds vs 163. 20 seconds of playing time. However that's not adjusted

molodyets

6/22/22 12:29pm

The problem is other teams aren't so stupid to continually give the other team short passes and open runs. So

kimdaddy35

6/22/22 12:03pm

It’s sad that

I'mBatman

6/22/22 12:05pm

Research says to basically never punt. Why are we still punting? Why is anyone

Iman23

6/22/22 12:05pm

For one, that research essentially assumes that the Law of Large Numbers will bail you out in the long run

Indy Coug

6/22/22 12:24pm

It doesn't say never punt. They have a table of when to punt and when not to.

Genghis Spreads

6/22/22 12:28pm

They forgot to look into the actual playing of defense, however.

Mitty

6/22/22 12:23pm

Well geez that makes me feel better. If there's one guy that can take a look at

byubyu

6/22/22 12:36pm

I was pleasantly surprised the variety of defensive play calling against 1st 3 PAC12 teams. Then USF

CLCougar

6/22/22 1:13pm

Recruit better on defense? Specifically d-line and linebacker.

6/22/22 2:15pm

What's Tuiaki's take on the "things that actually matter"?

Accipiter

6/22/22 8:21pm

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