less/more if there were penalties, I just took a straight count of plays where down = 3).

Across 13 games thats just under 15 a game (14.9) and opp converted 6.7

To be top 25 in the country, we would need to be at 35% - 5.2 vs 6.7

So we're talking about 1.5 3rd down conversions a game. You could give up 2 more on a drive that doesn't end in points and it's a wash. You could give up bigger plays on 2nd down and not have as many 3rd downs.

3rd down conversion doesn't tell you anything except that you didn't do a good enough job on first and second down. Average distance to go on 3rd down last year was 7.18 but we faced 6.4.