Other thoughts

Your apple watch is fine for rough estimates but dont go thinking its gospel truth. My fitness watch can be off by 10% from the metabolic testing ive done (which is a decent amount of wiggle room).

Since you are lifting more now you may have undergone some body composition changes. The number on the scale may not be different but you may have some beginner gains which have now shown up. In this same vein i wonder how you are getting your body fat calculated? If its just a scale those are even less trustworthy IMO than your apple watch.

There may be hidden calories that you arent accounting for. Like when your wife makes dinner how much olive oil or butter does she use? You may also not be as careful in tracking what you are eating. I know sometimes ill eat brownies on sunday night and that cuts in a caloric deficit pretty quick.

Track your macro intake as well. Id say shoot to get 180+ grams of protein per day (honestly 220+ would be better but that will be harder). Not only will you feel full all the time but in combination with your lifting your recovery will be better and your muscle mass will increase.