Oh, I'm firmly on the this is stupid, why are we cratering the economy

Mar 25, 2020
2:25:44pm

bald man All-American

to respond to this. But I'm that way because there is absolutely no numbers out there showing our health care system is hitting capacity. just the thoughts that it will.

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bald man

Bio page: bald man
Joined: Aug 2, 2002
Last login: Jun 8, 2024
Total posts: 25,728 (1,002 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Numbers that matter.

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:05pm

Nice work and good thoughts.

Uncle Bluto

3/25/20 2:07pm

Good stuff. Where is the link?

jholling

3/25/20 2:47pm

Cogent post, dude.

Brisco

3/25/20 2:12pm

I think the key here is what can the health care system handle.

bald man

3/25/20 2:15pm

The health care system already got swamped in Italy

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:19pm

The reality is as a society we've accepted the flu deaths, the drunk driving de

bald man

3/25/20 2:24pm

I see that statement all the time. But, I can't help but think, there's a CHANCE

monteburns

3/25/20 2:23pm

Oh, I'm firmly on the this is stupid, why are we cratering the economy

bald man

3/25/20 2:25pm

I think we DO overrun the health care system, but Italy shows us that cost

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:26pm

What's the 180k number? Worst case? Expected? Median case?

Plato

3/25/20 2:29pm

CDC often quotes 180K to 200K dead as a near-worst case scenario

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:30pm

Wow. That's not a lot. Shutdown math doesn't work.

Plato

3/25/20 2:34pm

The problem is that we know what 5,000 dead people look like.

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:38pm

Narcotic overdose deaths in the US

bluecheese

3/25/20 2:52pm

I post this more as a reality check then a "are we doing the right thing"

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:58pm

*1.7 million

Zoobieman

3/26/20 7:00pm

.5% and 1% die each year of all causes. But the numbers in Italy are deaths

libertycoug

3/25/20 2:39pm

Math looks right.

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:48pm

We're not Italy, but the numbers would give the US 69K deaths over the next 2 mo

libertycoug

3/25/20 3:06pm

"we're not Italy" is the key phrase

proudcugr

3/25/20 3:38pm

Very good points. I like the way you think

libertycoug

3/25/20 4:10pm

I love a good numbers debate. But I freely admit I'm no disease expert

proudcugr

3/25/20 5:39pm

How do you know the preventative measures worked. There

kotacoug

3/25/20 3:48pm

could you define overreaction for me? In a numbers discussion

libertycoug

3/25/20 4:23pm

This is a macro level discussion. Bringing grandma into

kotacoug

3/25/20 4:35pm

I like the question.

proudcugr

3/25/20 5:47pm

It makes on wonder, is it the fact that is not as bad as we thought or have we

airwolf

3/25/20 4:06pm

If Case #s are a Joke (constrained by testing) why are Case-#s-per-Capita not?

BYU'01

3/25/20 5:19pm

Case #'s per capita are also a joke. These #'s are deaths per capita.

proudcugr

3/25/20 5:28pm

RE: Case #'s per capita are also a joke. These #'s are deaths per capita.

BYU'01

3/25/20 5:44pm

Of course they're going up, but we can see where we are right now.

proudcugr

3/25/20 6:07pm

A month ago Italy had low/no deaths from Covid; a month later one region lost

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