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Apr 10, 2020
11:22
:41
am
Harbinger
Walk-on
Already been exposed. I either didn't get it or it was very mild.
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Harbinger
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Harbinger
Joined
Mar 13, 2020
Last login
Dec 26, 2020
Total posts
5,210 (11 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
The Foolishness of Herd Immunity in Infectious Diseases
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 8:14am
Sorry, you're way off on death rate. No way to know rate without antibody tests.
regularfan
4/10/20 8:16am
Reading that antibody tests are tricky with this one
byukarl
4/10/20 8:19am
Rather, dominant reason for a 2nd wave, is the lack of herd immunity, per the
roseyscenario
4/10/20 8:35am
How do you know on death rate? Look at the current statistics through the
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 8:38am
Only the most sick are being tested & confirmed. A true death rate would include
regularfan
4/10/20 8:47am
I agree that we don't know the infected rate, but we also don't know how many
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 8:51am
2 sides to that argument, and view is entirely dependent on political ideology.
roseyscenario
4/10/20 8:53am
When the CDC talks about a flu death rate of .1%, the denominator is 45,000,000
regularfan
4/10/20 8:50am
Millions of people have it without even knowing. Look at the antibody tests in
rggee
4/10/20 9:25am
The death rate of all infected is not 2%, last I saw was it is likely between
Charles Darwin
4/10/20 8:17am
Getting lower al the time
ABCoug
4/10/20 8:25am
Let's say .6%, and that somehow holds even with hospitals overwhelmed.
ReyOso
4/10/20 8:39am
I don’t even think 2/3 gets you to herd immunity.
Charles Darwin
4/10/20 8:57am
Why isn't it reasonable if that is approximately where the worldwide figures are
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 9:05am
You are using the case fatality rate for that not the estimated death rate
Charles Darwin
4/10/20 9:12am
There's so much we don't know. Every strategy looks risky from where I stand.
ReyOso
4/10/20 9:12am
Even under a herd approach people will shut themselves down
Charles Darwin
4/10/20 9:19am
Herd Immunity Approx = (Ro-1) / Ro. So with an Ro of 2, Herd immunity 50%
Zoobieman
4/10/20 6:20pm
I completely agree. The #s infected with herd immunity result in many more
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 9:04am
99.9% of hospitals aren't overwhelmed.
Benfica1
4/10/20 9:25am
So, if we increase infected, and decrease death rate, we still have a high
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 8:42am
I was pointing out issues with your assumptions
Charles Darwin
4/10/20 9:05am
My frustration with the process is that the suggested solution of herd immunity
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 9:07am
It is a bad solution in terms of health and economy
Charles Darwin
4/10/20 9:15am
Death rate can’t be that high. Foolish math.
idacoug
4/10/20 8:17am
Foolish to say “can’t”
coolcats
4/10/20 8:21am
So, cut the numbers, but increase the numbers for herd mentality. #s still high!
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 8:43am
Herd immunity is the ultimate solution but that doesn't mean we all go out
mudpupper
4/10/20 8:18am
Exactly why they flattened the curve
byukarl
4/10/20 8:22am
Shouldn't we let infections increase to max hospital usage?
ReyOso
4/10/20 8:40am
Not on purpose because then you have no headroom or capacity for any unforeseen
joelvandyne
4/10/20 8:42am
Also because this takes 2-3 weeks treatment
byukarl
4/10/20 8:48am
Utah doesn't really have low population density, not in practical terms.
ReyOso
4/10/20 8:54am
Well until masks become more available
byukarl
4/10/20 8:57am
Ideally yes, really difficult to manage it that effectively though.
Charles Darwin
4/10/20 9:21am
That is why I write the OP in the first place. We ultimately get to the point of
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 9:09am
How about everybody gets to decide what risks they take? If you are scared
rcbyufan
4/10/20 8:20am
Great if you live by yourself
byukarl
4/10/20 8:26am
We do not live in a perfect world. We have to live with the consequences of
rcbyufan
4/10/20 8:45am
Like licking toilet seats and partying
byukarl
4/10/20 8:52am
I think it will come to this at some point. Hopefully sooner than later.
RobAdams
4/10/20 8:27am
Now that wouldn't make any sense. We are only concerned with what OTHERS are
Cougfourlife
4/10/20 8:28am
Yes, every family decides what risk they take. This is what should be happening.
N8Dawg
4/10/20 8:30am
Except that’s not really how it works
buffgato
4/10/20 8:31am
And? You get to weigh the risk don't you?
Harbinger
4/10/20 8:51am
Not really
buffgato
4/10/20 9:14am
Well, they have no jobs right now, so....?
Benfica1
4/10/20 9:33am
would be brutal as an employer
BlueFrog
4/10/20 8:32am
So who are you going to sacrifice in your family by bringing the virus home? Or
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 8:44am
Probably no one, given that 99.5% of people recover just fine.
Harbinger
4/10/20 8:53am
Then go find someone with it and get infected. Then let us know the survival
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 9:42am
Already been exposed. I either didn't get it or it was very mild.
Harbinger
4/10/20 11:22am
That's what is meant by risk. If you fear bringing it home, stay home.
N8Dawg
4/10/20 8:56am
My wife will likely get the virus as she directly takes care of Covid patients
rcbyufan
4/10/20 8:58am
What if you're a scared government official & you're afraid voters & media will hold you responsible if you don't follow
SpiffCoug
4/10/20 8:55am
And where do you live that you get to claim freedoms have been deprived?
StalwartBraveTrue
4/11/20 10:23am
The data shows everything we need to know
Busiturtle
4/10/20 8:26am
So you are saying DON’T leave the 99 to go search for the 1?
StalwartBraveTrue
4/10/20 7:12pm
There is a huge flaw in your reasoning
BYUMizzou
4/10/20 8:32am
You are partially correct
byukarl
4/10/20 8:39am
Very good point - was never meant as a quarantine in the true sense of the word
ABCoug
4/10/20 8:42am
So what happens after May 1st? Herb says we go back to work. An asymptomatic
OceanMang
4/10/20 8:48am
I'm sure those at most risk last to come out in public
byukarl
4/10/20 8:55am
Or alternatively...
ABCoug
4/10/20 9:03am
If it’s that easy and our hospitals are way under capacity then why wait till
OceanMang
4/10/20 9:11am
^this
ABCoug
4/10/20 9:23am
I am not saying that we shelter until there is an immunity. Viruses have no
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 8:48am
You make a good point in that we need a proven effective therapeutic first
Psalm Trees
4/10/20 8:32am
You're 100% correct
byukarl
4/10/20 8:44am
Ventilators don't seem to be working. Don't be surprised if that method of
Harbinger
4/10/20 8:58am
"unexpected" passing? If you have 15 high risk individuals in your family expect
ABCoug
4/10/20 8:38am
You think I don't realize that death is part of life and that they could pass
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 8:57am
Have you grocery shopped? Have you ordered from a restaurant? Have you gone on
Harbinger
4/10/20 9:02am
You literally asked who I would "sacrifice" from my family to COVID
ABCoug
4/10/20 9:16am
I just saw this and wondered if it’s somehow early March again
TEXAS
4/10/20 9:02am
Just curious from all of the thumbs down, what is your solution? I too hate the
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 9:03am
Yes, that is exactly the solution for many here. To support this view. . .
ReyOso
4/10/20 9:17am
Very simple - Keep your at risk family members isolated
ABCoug
4/10/20 9:18am
My middle aged wife is at risk. So isolate her ... and me ... and our 5 kids...
runnincoug
4/10/20 10:12am
Take a sabbatical, fully isolate everyone you love and homeschool your kids
ABCoug
4/10/20 10:39am
I understand. But it's not just me. It's probably most U.S. families,
runnincoug
4/10/20 10:47am
I find it fairly saddenimg how many are willing to recommend sacrifices of other
StalwartBraveTrue
4/12/20 9:35am
I find it saddening some people aren't aware of the devastation the shutdown is
regularfan
4/12/20 9:53am
I’ve never once ignored or not recognized the impact this is having on
StalwartBraveTrue
4/12/20 8:27pm
Somewhere along the line government officials decided to try to eradicate the
Zinger
4/10/20 9:45am
Your entire scenario is based off of bogus #s. Garbage in = garbage out.
BleedCougarBlue2
4/10/20 10:30am
So tell me where the bogus #s are? What evidence do you have?
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 12:05pm
2% is an extremely high estimate...nobody is even close to that now.
Jingleheimer
4/10/20 11:18am
U.S. 3.7%, SP 10.1%, IT 12.8%, FR 10.4%, UK 8.1%, Switz 4.1%, GER 2.2%, SK 2.0%
ReyOso
4/10/20 11:38am
Yea, way high. Nothing worse than statistics for estimations. 🙂
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 12:06pm
I don't know why you are using those numbers.
Charles Darwin
4/10/20 12:14pm
What denominator are you using?
AZ Coug
4/10/20 6:26pm
The only thing we know about Deaths over Confirmed Cases is that it's wrong
Jingleheimer
4/11/20 8:59am
Current worldwide statistics -
BYU I Bleed Blue
4/10/20 12:44pm
Everyone over 70 and a few under
kiyoshige
4/11/20 7:45am
This thread is still lingering.. a couple thoughts
byukarl
4/11/20 9:16am
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