Exactly why they flattened the curve

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Apr 10, 2020
8:22:27am

byukarl Truly Addicted User

Exactly why they flattened the curve

This was never about death rate. It was about infection rate. If it ripped through too quickly they were worried about hospitals. You think Italy was a crazy site, imagine if they had not slowed it down at all.

And yes, death rates do go up in those cases. Herd immunity will still occur but over a longer period of time.

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byukarl

Bio page: byukarl
Joined: Apr 15, 2003
Last login: May 6, 2024
Total posts: 27,997 (690 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

The Foolishness of Herd Immunity in Infectious Diseases

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:14am

Sorry, you're way off on death rate. No way to know rate without antibody tests.

regularfan

4/10/20 8:16am

Reading that antibody tests are tricky with this one

byukarl

4/10/20 8:19am

Rather, dominant reason for a 2nd wave, is the lack of herd immunity, per the

roseyscenario

4/10/20 8:35am

How do you know on death rate? Look at the current statistics through the

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:38am

Only the most sick are being tested & confirmed. A true death rate would include

regularfan

4/10/20 8:47am

I agree that we don't know the infected rate, but we also don't know how many

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:51am

2 sides to that argument, and view is entirely dependent on political ideology.

roseyscenario

4/10/20 8:53am

When the CDC talks about a flu death rate of .1%, the denominator is 45,000,000

regularfan

4/10/20 8:50am

Millions of people have it without even knowing. Look at the antibody tests in

rggee

4/10/20 9:25am

The death rate of all infected is not 2%, last I saw was it is likely between

4/10/20 8:17am

Getting lower al the time

ABCoug

4/10/20 8:25am

Let's say .6%, and that somehow holds even with hospitals overwhelmed.

ReyOso

4/10/20 8:39am

I don’t even think 2/3 gets you to herd immunity.

4/10/20 8:57am

Why isn't it reasonable if that is approximately where the worldwide figures are

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:05am

You are using the case fatality rate for that not the estimated death rate

4/10/20 9:12am

There's so much we don't know. Every strategy looks risky from where I stand.

ReyOso

4/10/20 9:12am

Even under a herd approach people will shut themselves down

4/10/20 9:19am

Herd Immunity Approx = (Ro-1) / Ro. So with an Ro of 2, Herd immunity 50%

Zoobieman

4/10/20 6:20pm

I completely agree. The #s infected with herd immunity result in many more

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:04am

99.9% of hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Benfica1

4/10/20 9:25am

So, if we increase infected, and decrease death rate, we still have a high

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:42am

I was pointing out issues with your assumptions

4/10/20 9:05am

My frustration with the process is that the suggested solution of herd immunity

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:07am

It is a bad solution in terms of health and economy

4/10/20 9:15am

Death rate can’t be that high. Foolish math.

idacoug

4/10/20 8:17am

Foolish to say “can’t”

coolcats

4/10/20 8:21am

So, cut the numbers, but increase the numbers for herd mentality. #s still high!

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:43am

Herd immunity is the ultimate solution but that doesn't mean we all go out

mudpupper

4/10/20 8:18am

Exactly why they flattened the curve

byukarl

4/10/20 8:22am

Shouldn't we let infections increase to max hospital usage?

ReyOso

4/10/20 8:40am

Not on purpose because then you have no headroom or capacity for any unforeseen

joelvandyne

4/10/20 8:42am

Also because this takes 2-3 weeks treatment

byukarl

4/10/20 8:48am

Utah doesn't really have low population density, not in practical terms.

ReyOso

4/10/20 8:54am

Well until masks become more available

byukarl

4/10/20 8:57am

Ideally yes, really difficult to manage it that effectively though.

4/10/20 9:21am

That is why I write the OP in the first place. We ultimately get to the point of

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:09am

How about everybody gets to decide what risks they take? If you are scared

rcbyufan

4/10/20 8:20am

Great if you live by yourself

byukarl

4/10/20 8:26am

We do not live in a perfect world. We have to live with the consequences of

rcbyufan

4/10/20 8:45am

Like licking toilet seats and partying

byukarl

4/10/20 8:52am

I think it will come to this at some point. Hopefully sooner than later.

RobAdams

4/10/20 8:27am

Now that wouldn't make any sense. We are only concerned with what OTHERS are

Cougfourlife

4/10/20 8:28am

Yes, every family decides what risk they take. This is what should be happening.

N8Dawg

4/10/20 8:30am

Except that’s not really how it works

buffgato

4/10/20 8:31am

And? You get to weigh the risk don't you?

Harbinger

4/10/20 8:51am

Not really

buffgato

4/10/20 9:14am

Well, they have no jobs right now, so....?

Benfica1

4/10/20 9:33am

would be brutal as an employer

BlueFrog

4/10/20 8:32am

So who are you going to sacrifice in your family by bringing the virus home? Or

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:44am

Probably no one, given that 99.5% of people recover just fine.

Harbinger

4/10/20 8:53am

Then go find someone with it and get infected. Then let us know the survival

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:42am

Already been exposed. I either didn't get it or it was very mild.

Harbinger

4/10/20 11:22am

That's what is meant by risk. If you fear bringing it home, stay home.

N8Dawg

4/10/20 8:56am

My wife will likely get the virus as she directly takes care of Covid patients

rcbyufan

4/10/20 8:58am

What if you're a scared government official & you're afraid voters & media will hold you responsible if you don't follow

SpiffCoug

4/10/20 8:55am

And where do you live that you get to claim freedoms have been deprived?

StalwartBraveTrue

4/11/20 10:23am

The data shows everything we need to know

Busiturtle

4/10/20 8:26am

So you are saying DON’T leave the 99 to go search for the 1?

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 7:12pm

There is a huge flaw in your reasoning

BYUMizzou

4/10/20 8:32am

You are partially correct

byukarl

4/10/20 8:39am

Very good point - was never meant as a quarantine in the true sense of the word

ABCoug

4/10/20 8:42am

So what happens after May 1st? Herb says we go back to work. An asymptomatic

OceanMang

4/10/20 8:48am

I'm sure those at most risk last to come out in public

byukarl

4/10/20 8:55am

Or alternatively...

ABCoug

4/10/20 9:03am

If it’s that easy and our hospitals are way under capacity then why wait till

OceanMang

4/10/20 9:11am

^this

ABCoug

4/10/20 9:23am

I am not saying that we shelter until there is an immunity. Viruses have no

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:48am

You make a good point in that we need a proven effective therapeutic first

Psalm Trees

4/10/20 8:32am

You're 100% correct

byukarl

4/10/20 8:44am

Ventilators don't seem to be working. Don't be surprised if that method of

Harbinger

4/10/20 8:58am

"unexpected" passing? If you have 15 high risk individuals in your family expect

ABCoug

4/10/20 8:38am

You think I don't realize that death is part of life and that they could pass

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:57am

Have you grocery shopped? Have you ordered from a restaurant? Have you gone on

Harbinger

4/10/20 9:02am

You literally asked who I would "sacrifice" from my family to COVID

ABCoug

4/10/20 9:16am

More.Fear.Mongering

byuguns55

4/10/20 8:48am

Fear Mongering? Really? What is your solution? Act as though nothing is

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:59am

Pretty much, yeah

byuguns55

4/10/20 9:02am

Great suggestions. No.Solutions.At.All.

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:12am

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (like many others below)

byuguns55

4/10/20 9:54am

From march 15

kiyoshige

4/11/20 11:47am

Define isolate. Like putting them in a hotel? Shipping them all to some camp

StalwartBraveTrue

4/11/20 2:30pm

How about not having them go to completely packed grocery stores?

Jingleheimer

4/12/20 6:03am

I just saw this and wondered if it’s somehow early March again

TEXAS

4/10/20 9:02am

Just curious from all of the thumbs down, what is your solution? I too hate the

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:03am

Yes, that is exactly the solution for many here. To support this view. . .

ReyOso

4/10/20 9:17am

Very simple - Keep your at risk family members isolated

ABCoug

4/10/20 9:18am

My middle aged wife is at risk. So isolate her ... and me ... and our 5 kids...

runnincoug

4/10/20 10:12am

Take a sabbatical, fully isolate everyone you love and homeschool your kids

ABCoug

4/10/20 10:39am

I understand. But it's not just me. It's probably most U.S. families,

runnincoug

4/10/20 10:47am

Like you said at the end...we could and should try

byuguns55

4/10/20 11:00am

And maybe we should, as long as we're honest that we won't really be protecting

runnincoug

4/10/20 11:11am

And you too are feeding into fear...even those most susceptible won’t “all die”

byuguns55

4/10/20 11:41am

What I said is we wouldn't be able to isolate them

runnincoug

4/10/20 11:46am

For the scenario of your family I don’t think it would be all that hard

OceanMang

4/10/20 12:25pm

I teach (not math) at BYU, so no, I can't teach math to my high schoolers!

runnincoug

4/10/20 1:17pm

I find it fairly saddenimg how many are willing to recommend sacrifices of other

StalwartBraveTrue

4/12/20 9:35am

I find it saddening some people aren't aware of the devastation the shutdown is

regularfan

4/12/20 9:53am

I’ve never once ignored or not recognized the impact this is having on

StalwartBraveTrue

4/12/20 8:27pm

Somewhere along the line government officials decided to try to eradicate the

Zinger

4/10/20 9:45am

Your entire scenario is based off of bogus #s. Garbage in = garbage out.

BleedCougarBlue2

4/10/20 10:30am

So tell me where the bogus #s are? What evidence do you have?

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 12:05pm

2% is an extremely high estimate...nobody is even close to that now.

Jingleheimer

4/10/20 11:18am

U.S. 3.7%, SP 10.1%, IT 12.8%, FR 10.4%, UK 8.1%, Switz 4.1%, GER 2.2%, SK 2.0%

ReyOso

4/10/20 11:38am

Yea, way high. Nothing worse than statistics for estimations. 🙂

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 12:06pm

I don't know why you are using those numbers.

4/10/20 12:14pm

What denominator are you using?

AZ Coug

4/10/20 6:26pm

The only thing we know about Deaths over Confirmed Cases is that it's wrong

Jingleheimer

4/11/20 8:59am

Current worldwide statistics -

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 12:44pm

Everyone over 70 and a few under

kiyoshige

4/11/20 7:45am

This thread is still lingering.. a couple thoughts

byukarl

4/11/20 9:16am

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