Sign up, and you can customize which countdowns you see. Sign up
Apr 10, 2020
6:20:54pm
Zoobieman Contributor
Herd Immunity Approx = (Ro-1) / Ro. So with an Ro of 2, Herd immunity 50%

Of course this equation is a rough approximation, but it shows up in multiple textbooks.

Ro = Infectious transmission in a naive population, The actual R value will decrease over time as immunity builds.
In theory — Ro doesn't change because in the infectious equation models the population behavior doesn't change.
In reality — Ro has changed drastically because we reduced possible infectious exchanges through social distancing/Lockdowns.

I think the best bet is to assume Ro = 2.5 or Ro =3 just to be safe

Ro = 2.5 >>> Herd Immunity approx 60%
Ro = 3.0 >>> Herd immunity approx 66%


Measels Ro 12: Herd immunity >90%
Polio + HIV Ro 5: Herd Immunity >80%. (These are two cases were Flattening the curve has saved hundreds of thousands of lives)
MERS-CoV Ro 0.6: Herd Immunity 0%, This virus basically only spread between hospital patients and immuno-compromised if I remember correctly. That is why I think the 2 people in the USA who were diagnosed are completely forgotten as the CDC basically ignored this.
— I believe this virus just spread because
Zoobieman
Bio page
Zoobieman
Joined
Apr 23, 2012
Last login
May 5, 2024
Total posts
10,522 (29 FO)
Messages
Author
Time

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.