You are using the case fatality rate for that not the estimated death rate

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Apr 10, 2020
9:12:20am

Charles Darwin Walk-on

Accounting for undiagnosed cases.

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Charles Darwin

Bio page: Charles Darwin
Joined: Mar 21, 2020
Last login: May 6, 2024
Total posts: 14,259 (127 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

The Foolishness of Herd Immunity in Infectious Diseases

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:14am

Sorry, you're way off on death rate. No way to know rate without antibody tests.

regularfan

4/10/20 8:16am

Reading that antibody tests are tricky with this one

byukarl

4/10/20 8:19am

Rather, dominant reason for a 2nd wave, is the lack of herd immunity, per the

roseyscenario

4/10/20 8:35am

How do you know on death rate? Look at the current statistics through the

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:38am

Only the most sick are being tested & confirmed. A true death rate would include

regularfan

4/10/20 8:47am

I agree that we don't know the infected rate, but we also don't know how many

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:51am

2 sides to that argument, and view is entirely dependent on political ideology.

roseyscenario

4/10/20 8:53am

When the CDC talks about a flu death rate of .1%, the denominator is 45,000,000

regularfan

4/10/20 8:50am

Millions of people have it without even knowing. Look at the antibody tests in

rggee

4/10/20 9:25am

The death rate of all infected is not 2%, last I saw was it is likely between

Charles Darwin

4/10/20 8:17am

Getting lower al the time

ABCoug

4/10/20 8:25am

Let's say .6%, and that somehow holds even with hospitals overwhelmed.

ReyOso

4/10/20 8:39am

I don’t even think 2/3 gets you to herd immunity.

Charles Darwin

4/10/20 8:57am

Why isn't it reasonable if that is approximately where the worldwide figures are

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:05am

You are using the case fatality rate for that not the estimated death rate

Charles Darwin

4/10/20 9:12am

There's so much we don't know. Every strategy looks risky from where I stand.

ReyOso

4/10/20 9:12am

Even under a herd approach people will shut themselves down

Charles Darwin

4/10/20 9:19am

Herd Immunity Approx = (Ro-1) / Ro. So with an Ro of 2, Herd immunity 50%

Zoobieman

4/10/20 6:20pm

I completely agree. The #s infected with herd immunity result in many more

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:04am

99.9% of hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Benfica1

4/10/20 9:25am

So, if we increase infected, and decrease death rate, we still have a high

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:42am

I was pointing out issues with your assumptions

Charles Darwin

4/10/20 9:05am

My frustration with the process is that the suggested solution of herd immunity

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:07am

It is a bad solution in terms of health and economy

Charles Darwin

4/10/20 9:15am

Death rate can’t be that high. Foolish math.

idacoug

4/10/20 8:17am

Foolish to say “can’t”

coolcats

4/10/20 8:21am

So, cut the numbers, but increase the numbers for herd mentality. #s still high!

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:43am

Herd immunity is the ultimate solution but that doesn't mean we all go out

mudpupper

4/10/20 8:18am

Exactly why they flattened the curve

byukarl

4/10/20 8:22am

Shouldn't we let infections increase to max hospital usage?

ReyOso

4/10/20 8:40am

Not on purpose because then you have no headroom or capacity for any unforeseen

joelvandyne

4/10/20 8:42am

Also because this takes 2-3 weeks treatment

byukarl

4/10/20 8:48am

Utah doesn't really have low population density, not in practical terms.

ReyOso

4/10/20 8:54am

Well until masks become more available

byukarl

4/10/20 8:57am

Ideally yes, really difficult to manage it that effectively though.

Charles Darwin

4/10/20 9:21am

That is why I write the OP in the first place. We ultimately get to the point of

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:09am

How about everybody gets to decide what risks they take? If you are scared

rcbyufan

4/10/20 8:20am

Great if you live by yourself

byukarl

4/10/20 8:26am

We do not live in a perfect world. We have to live with the consequences of

rcbyufan

4/10/20 8:45am

Like licking toilet seats and partying

byukarl

4/10/20 8:52am

I think it will come to this at some point. Hopefully sooner than later.

RobAdams

4/10/20 8:27am

Now that wouldn't make any sense. We are only concerned with what OTHERS are

Cougfourlife

4/10/20 8:28am

Yes, every family decides what risk they take. This is what should be happening.

N8Dawg

4/10/20 8:30am

Except that’s not really how it works

buffgato

4/10/20 8:31am

And? You get to weigh the risk don't you?

Harbinger

4/10/20 8:51am

Not really

buffgato

4/10/20 9:14am

Well, they have no jobs right now, so....?

Benfica1

4/10/20 9:33am

would be brutal as an employer

BlueFrog

4/10/20 8:32am

So who are you going to sacrifice in your family by bringing the virus home? Or

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:44am

Probably no one, given that 99.5% of people recover just fine.

Harbinger

4/10/20 8:53am

Then go find someone with it and get infected. Then let us know the survival

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:42am

Already been exposed. I either didn't get it or it was very mild.

Harbinger

4/10/20 11:22am

That's what is meant by risk. If you fear bringing it home, stay home.

N8Dawg

4/10/20 8:56am

My wife will likely get the virus as she directly takes care of Covid patients

rcbyufan

4/10/20 8:58am

What if you're a scared government official & you're afraid voters & media will hold you responsible if you don't follow

SpiffCoug

4/10/20 8:55am

And where do you live that you get to claim freedoms have been deprived?

StalwartBraveTrue

4/11/20 10:23am

The data shows everything we need to know

Busiturtle

4/10/20 8:26am

So you are saying DON’T leave the 99 to go search for the 1?

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 7:12pm

There is a huge flaw in your reasoning

BYUMizzou

4/10/20 8:32am

You are partially correct

byukarl

4/10/20 8:39am

Very good point - was never meant as a quarantine in the true sense of the word

ABCoug

4/10/20 8:42am

So what happens after May 1st? Herb says we go back to work. An asymptomatic

OceanMang

4/10/20 8:48am

I'm sure those at most risk last to come out in public

byukarl

4/10/20 8:55am

Or alternatively...

ABCoug

4/10/20 9:03am

If it’s that easy and our hospitals are way under capacity then why wait till

OceanMang

4/10/20 9:11am

^this

ABCoug

4/10/20 9:23am

I am not saying that we shelter until there is an immunity. Viruses have no

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:48am

You make a good point in that we need a proven effective therapeutic first

Psalm Trees

4/10/20 8:32am

You're 100% correct

byukarl

4/10/20 8:44am

Ventilators don't seem to be working. Don't be surprised if that method of

Harbinger

4/10/20 8:58am

"unexpected" passing? If you have 15 high risk individuals in your family expect

ABCoug

4/10/20 8:38am

You think I don't realize that death is part of life and that they could pass

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:57am

Have you grocery shopped? Have you ordered from a restaurant? Have you gone on

Harbinger

4/10/20 9:02am

You literally asked who I would "sacrifice" from my family to COVID

ABCoug

4/10/20 9:16am

More.Fear.Mongering

byuguns55

4/10/20 8:48am

Fear Mongering? Really? What is your solution? Act as though nothing is

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 8:59am

Pretty much, yeah

byuguns55

4/10/20 9:02am

Great suggestions. No.Solutions.At.All.

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:12am

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (like many others below)

byuguns55

4/10/20 9:54am

From march 15

kiyoshige

4/11/20 11:47am

Define isolate. Like putting them in a hotel? Shipping them all to some camp

StalwartBraveTrue

4/11/20 2:30pm

How about not having them go to completely packed grocery stores?

Jingleheimer

4/12/20 6:03am

I just saw this and wondered if it’s somehow early March again

TEXAS

4/10/20 9:02am

Just curious from all of the thumbs down, what is your solution? I too hate the

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 9:03am

Yes, that is exactly the solution for many here. To support this view. . .

ReyOso

4/10/20 9:17am

Very simple - Keep your at risk family members isolated

ABCoug

4/10/20 9:18am

My middle aged wife is at risk. So isolate her ... and me ... and our 5 kids...

runnincoug

4/10/20 10:12am

Take a sabbatical, fully isolate everyone you love and homeschool your kids

ABCoug

4/10/20 10:39am

I understand. But it's not just me. It's probably most U.S. families,

runnincoug

4/10/20 10:47am

Like you said at the end...we could and should try

byuguns55

4/10/20 11:00am

And maybe we should, as long as we're honest that we won't really be protecting

runnincoug

4/10/20 11:11am

And you too are feeding into fear...even those most susceptible won’t “all die”

byuguns55

4/10/20 11:41am

What I said is we wouldn't be able to isolate them

runnincoug

4/10/20 11:46am

For the scenario of your family I don’t think it would be all that hard

OceanMang

4/10/20 12:25pm

I teach (not math) at BYU, so no, I can't teach math to my high schoolers!

runnincoug

4/10/20 1:17pm

I find it fairly saddenimg how many are willing to recommend sacrifices of other

StalwartBraveTrue

4/12/20 9:35am

I find it saddening some people aren't aware of the devastation the shutdown is

regularfan

4/12/20 9:53am

I’ve never once ignored or not recognized the impact this is having on

StalwartBraveTrue

4/12/20 8:27pm

Somewhere along the line government officials decided to try to eradicate the

Zinger

4/10/20 9:45am

Your entire scenario is based off of bogus #s. Garbage in = garbage out.

BleedCougarBlue2

4/10/20 10:30am

So tell me where the bogus #s are? What evidence do you have?

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 12:05pm

2% is an extremely high estimate...nobody is even close to that now.

Jingleheimer

4/10/20 11:18am

U.S. 3.7%, SP 10.1%, IT 12.8%, FR 10.4%, UK 8.1%, Switz 4.1%, GER 2.2%, SK 2.0%

ReyOso

4/10/20 11:38am

Yea, way high. Nothing worse than statistics for estimations. 🙂

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 12:06pm

I don't know why you are using those numbers.

Charles Darwin

4/10/20 12:14pm

What denominator are you using?

AZ Coug

4/10/20 6:26pm

The only thing we know about Deaths over Confirmed Cases is that it's wrong

Jingleheimer

4/11/20 8:59am

Current worldwide statistics -

BYU I Bleed Blue

4/10/20 12:44pm

Everyone over 70 and a few under

kiyoshige

4/11/20 7:45am

This thread is still lingering.. a couple thoughts

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