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Mar 25, 2020
4:35
:13
pm
kotacoug
Intervention Needed
This is a macro level discussion. Bringing grandma into
Thetalking points serves no purpose. I feel like any less than 50,000 dead in the US I for the measures we have adopted is an over reaction.
If people are going to bring micro level scenarios into the discussion don’t bother posting.
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kotacoug
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kotacoug
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Jul 20, 2002
Last login
May 22, 2024
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Messages
Author
Time
Numbers that matter.
proudcugr
3/25/20 2:05pm
Nice work and good thoughts.
Uncle Bluto
3/25/20 2:07pm
Good stuff. Where is the link?
jholling
3/25/20 2:47pm
Cogent post, dude.
Brisco
3/25/20 2:12pm
I think the key here is what can the health care system handle.
bald man
3/25/20 2:15pm
The health care system already got swamped in Italy
proudcugr
3/25/20 2:19pm
The reality is as a society we've accepted the flu deaths, the drunk driving de
bald man
3/25/20 2:24pm
I see that statement all the time. But, I can't help but think, there's a CHANCE
monteburns
3/25/20 2:23pm
Oh, I'm firmly on the this is stupid, why are we cratering the economy
bald man
3/25/20 2:25pm
I think we DO overrun the health care system, but Italy shows us that cost
proudcugr
3/25/20 2:26pm
What's the 180k number? Worst case? Expected? Median case?
Plato
3/25/20 2:29pm
CDC often quotes 180K to 200K dead as a near-worst case scenario
proudcugr
3/25/20 2:30pm
Wow. That's not a lot. Shutdown math doesn't work.
Plato
3/25/20 2:34pm
The problem is that we know what 5,000 dead people look like.
proudcugr
3/25/20 2:38pm
Narcotic overdose deaths in the US
bluecheese
3/25/20 2:52pm
I post this more as a reality check then a "are we doing the right thing"
proudcugr
3/25/20 2:58pm
*1.7 million
Zoobieman
3/26/20 7:00pm
.5% and 1% die each year of all causes. But the numbers in Italy are deaths
libertycoug
3/25/20 2:39pm
Math looks right.
proudcugr
3/25/20 2:48pm
We're not Italy, but the numbers would give the US 69K deaths over the next 2 mo
libertycoug
3/25/20 3:06pm
"we're not Italy" is the key phrase
proudcugr
3/25/20 3:38pm
Very good points. I like the way you think
libertycoug
3/25/20 4:10pm
I love a good numbers debate. But I freely admit I'm no disease expert
proudcugr
3/25/20 5:39pm
How do you know the preventative measures worked. There
kotacoug
3/25/20 3:48pm
could you define overreaction for me? In a numbers discussion
libertycoug
3/25/20 4:23pm
This is a macro level discussion. Bringing grandma into
kotacoug
3/25/20 4:35pm
I like the question.
proudcugr
3/25/20 5:47pm
It makes on wonder, is it the fact that is not as bad as we thought or have we
airwolf
3/25/20 4:06pm
If Case #s are a Joke (constrained by testing) why are Case-#s-per-Capita not?
BYU'01
3/25/20 5:19pm
Case #'s per capita are also a joke. These #'s are deaths per capita.
proudcugr
3/25/20 5:28pm
RE: Case #'s per capita are also a joke. These #'s are deaths per capita.
BYU'01
3/25/20 5:44pm
Of course they're going up, but we can see where we are right now.
proudcugr
3/25/20 6:07pm
A month ago Italy had low/no deaths from Covid; a month later one region lost
BYU'01
3/25/20 7:16pm
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