What's the 180k number? Worst case? Expected? Median case?

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Mar 25, 2020
2:29:13pm

Plato Truly Addicted User

What's the 180k number? Worst case? Expected? Median case?

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Plato

Bio page: Plato
Joined: Mar 21, 2017
Last login: May 4, 2024
Total posts: 19,889 (473 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Numbers that matter.

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:05pm

Nice work and good thoughts.

Uncle Bluto

3/25/20 2:07pm

Good stuff. Where is the link?

jholling

3/25/20 2:47pm

Cogent post, dude.

Brisco

3/25/20 2:12pm

I think the key here is what can the health care system handle.

bald man

3/25/20 2:15pm

The health care system already got swamped in Italy

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:19pm

The reality is as a society we've accepted the flu deaths, the drunk driving de

bald man

3/25/20 2:24pm

I see that statement all the time. But, I can't help but think, there's a CHANCE

monteburns

3/25/20 2:23pm

Oh, I'm firmly on the this is stupid, why are we cratering the economy

bald man

3/25/20 2:25pm

I think we DO overrun the health care system, but Italy shows us that cost

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:26pm

What's the 180k number? Worst case? Expected? Median case?

Plato

3/25/20 2:29pm

CDC often quotes 180K to 200K dead as a near-worst case scenario

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:30pm

Wow. That's not a lot. Shutdown math doesn't work.

Plato

3/25/20 2:34pm

The problem is that we know what 5,000 dead people look like.

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:38pm

Narcotic overdose deaths in the US

bluecheese

3/25/20 2:52pm

I post this more as a reality check then a "are we doing the right thing"

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:58pm

*1.7 million

Zoobieman

3/26/20 7:00pm

.5% and 1% die each year of all causes. But the numbers in Italy are deaths

libertycoug

3/25/20 2:39pm

Math looks right.

proudcugr

3/25/20 2:48pm

We're not Italy, but the numbers would give the US 69K deaths over the next 2 mo

libertycoug

3/25/20 3:06pm

"we're not Italy" is the key phrase

proudcugr

3/25/20 3:38pm

Very good points. I like the way you think

libertycoug

3/25/20 4:10pm

I love a good numbers debate. But I freely admit I'm no disease expert

proudcugr

3/25/20 5:39pm

How do you know the preventative measures worked. There

kotacoug

3/25/20 3:48pm

could you define overreaction for me? In a numbers discussion

libertycoug

3/25/20 4:23pm

This is a macro level discussion. Bringing grandma into

kotacoug

3/25/20 4:35pm

I like the question.

proudcugr

3/25/20 5:47pm

It makes on wonder, is it the fact that is not as bad as we thought or have we

airwolf

3/25/20 4:06pm

If Case #s are a Joke (constrained by testing) why are Case-#s-per-Capita not?

BYU'01

3/25/20 5:19pm

Case #'s per capita are also a joke. These #'s are deaths per capita.

proudcugr

3/25/20 5:28pm

RE: Case #'s per capita are also a joke. These #'s are deaths per capita.

BYU'01

3/25/20 5:44pm

Of course they're going up, but we can see where we are right now.

proudcugr

3/25/20 6:07pm

A month ago Italy had low/no deaths from Covid; a month later one region lost

BYU'01

3/25/20 7:16pm

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